Turkish exporters are facing mounting pressure from escalating tensions in the Middle East, with shipments to Gulf countries dropping sharply and energy-driven import costs rising, officials and industry data showed.
Exports to Gulf nations fell 36.5% year-on-year between March 1 and March 29, Trade Minister Omer Bolat said at an event in Istanbul on March 31. Monthly exports to the region declined to $1.2 billion, while imports rose 3% to $1.6 billion, partly due to higher energy prices.
Bolat said the decline in exports was driven mainly by reduced shipments to the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Despite the recent drop, Turkey’s exports to Gulf countries totaled nearly $31 billion last year, with imports reaching $25.5 billion, he added. Road transport accounted for 44.3% of exports to the region, while maritime routes dominated imports with a 40% share.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted logistics, prompting Ankara to hold talks with Saudi Arabia to ease transit. Bolat said the discussions resulted in 15-day transit visas for Turkish truck drivers, allowing goods to reach Gulf markets within three to four days.
He added that the arrangement could also facilitate fertilizer imports, particularly from Qatar.
Bolat said a newly launched transit trade route through Syria now enables Turkish trucks to access Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf destinations more quickly, which could help restore trade flows.
“Once the war ends, Turkey will rapidly emerge as a reliable supply and logistics hub in the region,” he said.
In a separate report, the Turkish Exporters’ Assembly warned that sustained high oil prices could significantly widen the country’s trade imbalance. If Brent crude stabilizes near $100 per barrel, Turkey’s foreign trade deficit could reach $134 billion, the group said.
Under the same scenario, exports are projected to rise by $22 billion to $295.5 billion, while imports could climb to $431 billion.
The report also warned that prolonged conflict could cut Turkey’s exports to Gulf countries by up to $5 billion annually and increase pressure on the economy, particularly if foreign exchange liquidity weakens and the central bank’s ability to support the lira diminishes.