The first weeks of Donald Trump’s second presidency have confirmed The New York Times headline from the day he took office: “The Deal Maker is Back.” His foreign policy approach seems to crystallize around this theme, emphasizing transactional diplomacy.
According to Deutsche Welle (DW), this means, for example, that U.S. military aid to Ukraine could continue—if Ukraine grants the U.S. access to critical raw materials such as rare earth minerals and lithium. It also includes controversial projects such as a plan to develop Gaza’s coastline into a “Middle Eastern Riviera” or the revival of Trump Tower in Belgrade. A project that failed in 2012 is now set to break ground, largely due to the efforts of Trump’s close adviser Richard “Ric” Grenell. Grenell, who served as Trump’s special envoy for the Balkans during his first term, has now been appointed as “special envoy for special missions.”
Grenell maintains close and even friendly relations with Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and Serbia’s Foreign Minister Marko Đurić, who previously served as the country’s ambassador to Washington. In 2023, Vučić awarded Grenell a state honor for his “balanced approach” to Kosovo, which Serbia still claims as its territory 26 years after the Kosovo War.
Trump Tower in Belgrade: A New Chapter
In March 2024, the Serbian government, Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, and Arab investors signed an agreement to build Trump Tower in Belgrade. The New York Times estimates the project will cost half a billion dollars. The plan repurposes the former Yugoslav Army headquarters, bombed by NATO in 1999, into a luxury hotel complex with high-end apartments and a memorial for victims of the airstrikes. This would make Belgrade the fifth city worldwide to host a Trump Tower, following New York, Chicago, Manila, and Istanbul.
Blagojević as U.S. Ambassador to Serbia?
Rod “Blago” Blagojević, a colorful political figure even by Trump’s standards, has emerged as a potential candidate for U.S. ambassador to Serbia. Politico recently reported that Trump is considering appointing the former Democratic governor of Illinois, who was impeached in 2009 and sentenced to 14 years in prison for corruption. Trump commuted his sentence in 2020, making Blagojević a strong ally.
Speaking to DW, Daniel Serwer, a Balkans expert at Johns Hopkins University, described Blagojević as “perfect for Belgrade: a deeply corrupt politician willing to do whatever Trump wants just to be rehabilitated.”
Blagojević, who appeared on The Apprentice after his impeachment, has actively campaigned for Trump among Serbian-American communities. In early 2025, he met Vučić in Belgrade, where he harshly criticized Kosovo’s Prime Minister Albin Kurti, accusing him of “ethnic cleansing” of Serbs in Kosovo. In a dramatic gesture, he apologized to Vučić for NATO’s 1999 intervention, comparing it to Russia’s actions in Ukraine.
Rising Tensions in the Balkans
This diplomatic shift coincides with increased radical rhetoric from Belgrade amid mass protests against Vučić. According to DW, Serbia’s Foreign Minister Đurić recently described Kosovo as “our southern province,” while Serbian military leaders have hinted at intervention to “protect Serbs” there. Vučić, who previously called Kurti a “terrorist scumbag,” recently escalated his rhetoric further.
Dr. Kurt Bassuener of the Berlin-based think tank Democratization Policy Council warned that Serbia’s ambitions extend beyond Kosovo to Bosnia and Herzegovina. He suggested the EU could counter Belgrade’s aggression by reinforcing its EUFOR peacekeeping mission in Bosnia.
In this volatile environment, a U.S. Balkan team led by Grenell, Kushner, and Blagojević would be a major asset for Belgrade, according to DW. “The likelihood of Serbia normalizing ties with Kosovo—already slim—would diminish further. Given the Trump team’s direct ties to Vučić and their open hostility toward Kurti, analysts see early signs of a shift in U.S. policy in the region.”
The media reminds that “in 2023, the EU paradoxically sanctioned Kosovo rather than Serbia after violent clashes involving Serbian forces and NATO-backed Kosovan security units.”
Serwer and Bassuener now question whether the U.S. would intervene militarily against Serbia in a future crisis. Serwer warns that even discussions about territorial divisions in Kosovo or Ukraine could embolden Serbian secessionists in Bosnia. “That would force Bosnians to react,” he told DW. “And in Kosovo, Javelin missiles would be the best defense”—a reference to the U.S.-supplied anti-tank weapons that helped Ukraine resist Russia’s 2022 invasion.
With tensions rising in the Western Balkans, a region surrounded by EU member states, analysts warn that Trump’s return could embolden nationalist forces and destabilize Europe’s “backyard.”
