After 80 Years Under the American Protective Umbrella, This Weekend Europeans Woke Up from Their Deep Slumber
By Enver Robelli
The 61st Munich Security Conference, held this past weekend, has already entered history for many experts, politicians, and geostrategists. Some of the reasons for this assertion can be found in the following text.
Europeans certainly expected U.S. Vice President JD Vance to deliver a speech on geopolitical challenges, the war in Ukraine, the upcoming talks between President Donald Trump and the Russian dictator, and the role of the United States in Europe. In his 20-minute speech, however, Vance devoted barely two minutes to global risks and threats.
Instead, the American vice president delivered an almost electoral speech—one that favored Europe’s far-right parties. He claimed that Europe’s greatest danger did not come from China or Russia but from within. He complained about the suppression of free speech in Europe and protested against the isolation of Germany’s far-right party, AfD, which German security authorities have classified as partially dangerous to the constitutional order. In a Munich hotel, Vance even met with AfD leader Alice Weidel.
According to Vance, in recent years, Europe has supposedly turned into a kind of Soviet zone, where dissidents are mistreated, opinions are censored, and elections are manipulated—or even canceled altogether, as in Romania’s case.
Regarding Romania, Vance has a point—to some extent: How is it possible for Russia to manipulate Romanian presidential elections through fake TikTok profiles and other tools? Where is the responsibility of the citizens? What about the politicians? The political class? Romania should serve as a lesson for other countries: if a political class remains mired in corruption, scandals, and misgovernance for years, then one day, after losing patience, the majority of citizens will throw themselves into the arms of pro-Russian populists—just as happened in Romania.
But Romania is not a representative example of the entire European Union, despite what the American vice president tried to portray in his speech, which was more ideological than logical. Some of his examples were outright absurd. Vance complained that in Germany, police were conducting searches against citizens suspected of publishing anti-feminist comments online. What is the truth? According to Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, on March 7, 2024, police carried out raids and interrogated 45 individuals suspected of posting misogynistic comments on online platforms. Authorities referred to a court ruling against a man who had posted hate-filled statements about women, writing that “women” are “closer to animals” and “second-class people.”
Is this free speech? What would JD Vance’s response be? No one knows, because after his speech, he left the hall at the Bayerischer Hof hotel. Vance also complained that the conference had not invited representatives from left- and right-wing populist parties (he was referring to the so-called Alternative for Germany and to politician Sahra Wagenknecht, who claims to be left-wing but is, in reality, a pro-Russian propagandist, according to critical German media). The head of the Munich Security Conference, Christoph Heusgen, stated that these two parties were not invited because they had walked out of the German parliament when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke. According to Heusgen, these two parties reject the principle of “peace through dialogue.”
Nevertheless, after the Munich Security Conference, Europe woke up to a new world. The shock was so great that one European diplomat remarked, “Everyone should go to therapy.” But beyond the dramatic tones, it should be noted that the U.S. did not mention withdrawing its troops from Europe, nor did it question its nuclear protection of the continent—although, who knows what could happen next. For now, Europe (and the world) can remain calm—at least until the prominent occupant of the White House tires of signing executive orders and dozes off.
For Europe, the major challenge now is that in future negotiations on Ukraine, Europeans will likely not play a central role. At the big table, Trump and Putin want to be the main players. As one German newspaper pointed out, after 80 years of friendship with the U.S., many Europeans now feel like useless slaves. For decades, Europeans have lived under the illusion that the U.S. would guarantee their security and prosperity forever. After 80 years under the American protective umbrella, this weekend, Europeans woke up from their deep slumber. Other American presidents have tried to wake them up before (Barack Obama, Joe Biden). Donald Trump is doing it his way.
There are two ways to respond to this situation: Europeans can retreat into a corner and lament their fate, or they can recognize their own strength. In the global economy, the European Union is almost equal to the U.S. and nearly on par with China. Consequently, it should allocate far more resources to defense than it has so far.
Shock and fear should not become a permanent state in Europe. President Trump has a different political style—whether we like it or not. But as we saw when he imposed tariffs on Mexico and Canada, he quickly backed down out of fear of stock market consequences and broader economic impact.
What we witnessed in Munich this past weekend was realpolitik in its rawest form. It has long been clear that with this level of Western support, Ukraine cannot reclaim all of its territory. European politicians have even hinted at this between the lines. Trump and his team are saying some unpleasant things, but are they completely untrue? No.
It remains to be seen whether Trump’s strategy will now work—before negotiations with Russia even begin, his ministers are already sending the message that Ukraine will not be admitted into NATO and will not exist within its pre-2014 borders. In other words: before negotiations start, Putin already knows what he will gain. One lesson from history is this: before entering negotiations, you should never surrender your leverage. Or, as President Theodore Roosevelt put it: “Speak softly, but carry a big stick.”
