By Denko Maleski
The leader of the opposition, Venko Filipče, may be more right than he realizes. Namely, after the annual address by President Gordana Siljanovska–Davkova, he said that this marks the end of the European project for Macedonia. Here is why I believe that, in the coming years, this prophecy is very likely to come true.
Because the two conditions for unlocking negotiations with the EU, listed in the president’s speech, are unachievable.
The first is to reach a national consensus among the parties in parliament, and the second is to obtain guarantees from the union of states known as the EU.
On unity. Even in the system where it was sung that “whoever says otherwise is slandering and lying,” there was no total unity, because dissent existed. Today, under conditions of democracy, in a political system that legalizes disagreement, and with politicians whose oriental mentality does not know where to draw the line of disagreement – or does not draw it at all – there is no magic that can produce what the one-party system could not: unity of thought, even on Macedonia. That is precisely why democracy relies on voting and outvoting, and why the minority bows to the will of the majority.
I note that SDSM has bowed countless times to the will of the citizens expressed in the last elections, which defeated its policies. In a democracy, that is more than sufficient. The new policy should propose new, better, and publicly acceptable solutions to old problems. But, unable to do so, VMRO-DPMNE demands something that does not exist in democratic systems: repentance for “treasonous” policies that allegedly harmed the national pride and identity of the Macedonian people.
It insists that the opposition line up behind their party (!?) as an admission that, in the past, when SDSM failed to seek consent from their parliamentary group, it committed not a mistake, but treason. Yet the truth is that through its actions, the Social Democrats did neither. In liberal democratic political systems, the executive branch concludes international agreements and parliament ratifies them. SDSM did not deviate from this rule. The fact that it did not receive support from VMRO-DPMNE in parliament is something that happens in parliaments all over the world.
On guarantees. In politics in general, whether domestic or international, there are no guarantees. Even international agreements signed by two parties may, over time, cease to be valid. That is why time sequences in which solutions are sought through law are important. Once a time sequence – a slice of time – passes, new situations emerge that require different solutions.
For example, current European politicians are offering the existing solution to the Macedonian–Bulgarian dispute, known as the “French proposal.” Yet as early as tomorrow, after elections in France or Germany, the political situation in these countries is expected to change. In which direction? In a direction entirely unfavorable to our state.
If the dominant forecasts materialize, the eurosceptic right will win, and the domestic and foreign policies of Germany and France will change, and with them those of the alliance they lead. Then we may be freed from the “French proposal,” but not in order to receive a new one that is better for us – rather, to receive none at all. The geopolitical views of the current European political establishment, dominated by the “Russian threat” and by deepening integration toward something like a European federation, increase the demand for new members.
The expectations among our politicians and intellectuals are that this demand will create a situation in which the entire Western Balkans – including us – will join the EU, in our case regardless of the bilateral dispute with Bulgaria. But they seem to forget that the announced change of political elites, with the rise of right-wing eurosceptics, will dramatically reduce that demand, and we may be left high and dry.
The German and French right, namely, favors economic cooperation with Russia and closer alignment with the policies of U.S. President Trump, and opposes enlargement. The question of the fate of the EU itself is a separate story.
Thus, over the next two or three years, the authorities may believe they are controlling the situation, only to realize at some point that, in fact, the situation has been controlling them. Because if you do not swim with the others today, tomorrow you risk being thrown by the river alone onto an unknown shore.