S&P Global Ratings has affirmed Croatia’s “A-” credit rating with a positive outlook, citing ongoing reforms and strong economic growth, Croatia’s finance ministry said on Tuesday.
In a report published late on Monday, S&P highlighted that Croatia’s economic performance, driven by robust tourism, investments, and recovering external demand, is expected to support stable income growth. The agency forecasts the country’s economy to grow by an average of 2.9% between 2025 and 2028.
S&P also noted that moderate fiscal consolidation would help reduce the budget deficit to around 2% of GDP by 2028, down from an estimated 2.6% in 2024. The general government debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to decline to approximately 51% by 2028, compared to 68% in 2022.
The report added that inflows from EU grants and stable foreign direct investments would cover current account deficits, supporting continued deleveraging over the next few years.
Last week, Fitch Ratings also affirmed Croatia’s “A-” rating, but with a stable outlook. Fitch praised the country’s fiscal discipline and strong economic growth but cautioned that Croatia’s small, open economy remains vulnerable to external shocks.
“Croatia’s ratings reflect its credible policy framework supported by its EU and eurozone membership, a record of fiscal discipline, and robust economic growth,” Fitch said in its report.
Croatia’s economy has continued to outperform regional peers, with real GDP growth accelerating to 3.8% in 2024 from 3.3% in 2023, driven by rising real wages, fiscal stimulus, and inflows of EU funds.
Fitch expects growth to ease to 3.2% in 2025, still above its December 2024 forecast of 1.2% for the eurozone and 2.3% for the ‘A’ median, as private consumption and investment growth moderate amid heightened external uncertainty. Growth is expected to slow toward its potential of about 2.5% in 2026.
