Are the delayed constitutional amendments the only option on the negotiating table, or just an initial stance? This question arises following contradictory statements from North Macedonia’s ruling coalition partners. Experts, cited by Radio Free Europe, express skepticism that Bulgaria’s new government will bring changes to its position on lifting the blockade of North Macedonia’s EU accession process.

Bulgaria’s new government—the seventh in three years—is not expected to change its demand that the Bulgarian community be included in North Macedonia’s constitution, a prerequisite for opening EU accession chapters. Political analysts say that despite government changes in both countries, Skopje’s path to the EU remains constrained by the French proposal, which North Macedonia’s ruling VMRO-DPMNE party opposes.

Since the formation of Bulgaria’s new government on Jan. 16, the North Macedonia issue has not been a key topic in public discourse, except for one instance when Bulgarian Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov met with European Council President António Costa.

Zhelyazkov reaffirmed Bulgaria’s support for EU enlargement in the Western Balkans but emphasized strict adherence to the principle that candidate countries must meet all requirements.

Delayed Constitutional Amendments: A Compromise or Negotiation Tactic?

Ruling coalition partners in Skopje have expressed differing views on constitutional amendments and their implementation timeline. Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski insists that the government will not shift from its stance on “delayed implementation” of constitutional changes.

“We are seeking a dignified solution. On the table, we have a proposal for constitutional amendments with delayed implementation, and we are ready for dialogue,” Mickoski said in a press conference.

Meanwhile, Deputy Prime Minister Orhan Murtezani says that delayed implementation is just one proposal, not the government’s final stance.

“This is a way to send a clear signal to Sofia that we are ready for dialogue and want a long-term agreement that will secure our EU path without future blockades,” Murtezani told Voice of America.

Similarly, Minister of Health and leader of the Alliance for Albanians, Arben Taravari, has requested a six-month extension for the constitutional amendments, emphasizing that the previous government led by the Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM) and the Democratic Union for Integration (DUI) failed to fulfill this requirement.

“Give us at least a year. The previous government had ten years,” Taravari told TV21.

He hopes that U.S. pressure on Bulgaria will influence a softening of Sofia’s stance, mentioning Mickoski’s ties to the new Trump administration.

“There are people close to Mickoski who have connections with President Trump. But Bulgaria did not have a government until recently, and to move forward on these issues, we need a counterpart to negotiate with,” Taravari added.

Skepticism Over Potential Shifts in Sofia’s Stance

Experts remain skeptical about any shift in Bulgaria’s position, despite potential U.S. pressure. Political analyst Blagojche Atanasovski points out that the new Bulgarian government comprises parties that previously opposed the French proposal.

“Even if there is American pressure, Bulgaria’s new government includes parties that have demanded additional conditions from North Macedonia and viewed the French proposal as unfavorable for Bulgarian interests,” Atanasovski said.

He added that Bulgaria’s new foreign minister, Georg Georgiev, has taken a strong political and ideological stance on the Macedonian issue.

“If the Trump administration exerts significant pressure on Sofia to change its stance, it is more likely that this Bulgarian government will collapse rather than make concessions,” he emphasized.

The issue of including the Bulgarian community in North Macedonia’s constitution resurfaced with the formation of Bulgaria’s new government, following several failed attempts to establish a political executive in Sofia. Meanwhile, the opposition in Skopje has urged Mickoski to meet with his Bulgarian counterpart, Zhelyazkov, to discuss the matter.

SDSM Supports VMRO-DPMNE’s Call for International Guarantees

SDSM leader Venko Filipche said that now, with a political government in Sofia, progress in negotiations is expected.

“We now have a government in Bulgaria, and I fully support the prime minister’s request for a meeting as soon as possible. Let’s see if we can secure additional guarantees for the process,” Filipche stated.

Mickoski, for his part, said he is ready to start negotiations but did not specify a timeline for the meeting.

However, analysts remain doubtful that such talks will bring significant changes to Bulgaria’s stance. According to Arsovski, Skopje may seek an EU declaration to prevent future Bulgarian demands, but this remains a “gray area” in negotiations.

Macedonian-Bulgarian relations deteriorated after Bulgaria vetoed the opening of EU accession talks with North Macedonia. In 2022, the acceptance of the French proposal stipulated that North Macedonia would open EU chapters only after constitutional amendments to include Bulgarians in the preamble. /RFE, BV