Russia has a destabilizing potential in the Western Balkans, which is manifested mainly through its influence in far-right political circles linked to the Serbian Orthodox Church (SOC), through which it aims to destabilize the region and hinder its integration into the EU and NATO. In these efforts, Russia seeks to deepen interethnic divisions and provoke incidents that could push the region to the brink of armed conflict, returning it to the situation of the 1990s.
Due to the absence of a Serbian political factor and the Orthodox Church, Moscow’s influence is currently at its lowest in Albania. The Orthodox Church in Albania is connected to the Greek Orthodox world, which serves as the strongest evidence that the Russian Church is in fact an extension of Moscow’s criminal regime and is directly involved in the destabilization of the region!
Official Tirana is a strongly pro-Western country – a NATO member since 2009 and a candidate for EU membership. Albania has recently been rapidly advancing towards the EU and has overtaken Serbia in the negotiation process. What Serbia achieved in 7 years, Albania achieved in just 7 months! The political, economic and social space for Russian infiltration is very narrow. However, there have been some Russian attempts through propaganda and disinformation operations to exert influence, but so far these have been extremely limited.
A few years ago, Albania was the target of a cyberattack originating from Iranian territory, following Albania’s support for Ukraine and support for EU decisions to impose sanctions on Russia. But that is all Moscow has managed to do so far. Albania is the best example in Southeast Europe that shows how important it is to distance yourself from Moscow if you want peace, freedom and economic progress… in fact, it is an even better example than Croatia!
One of the main levers of Russia’s power in the region is the issue of Kosovo’s status, through which Moscow exercises significant influence in Serbia. Russia does not recognize Kosovo’s independence and uses its position in the UN Security Council to block international recognition. In Kosovo, Russia does not have a significant direct influence on society, but it does have strong political influence through its support for Serbia and Serbian extremist groups in Kosovo. Russia uses tensions between Belgrade and Pristina as a means to exert pressure on the West and to divert attention from Ukraine. It supports extremist and right-wing Serbian narratives in northern Kosovo and may also be involved in possible intelligence activities.
Since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the intensity of propaganda has increased, with similar patterns:
-That NATO, the EU or the collective West is provoking conflict in Kosovo;
-That the Albanian majority supports a ‘pogrom’ against the Serbian population;
That attacks against Serbs always remain unpunished;
And that the ultimate goal is the deployment of NATO troops throughout the Balkans, essentially the “invasion” of Serbian territory!
Parallels are drawn between the “threats” against Serbs in Kosovo and the Russians in Donbas, with calls for “denazification”.
The issue of Russian influence on the group led by Milan Radoićić, which carried out the terrorist attack in Banjska in September 2023, remains particularly open. According to my information, apart from an advisory role, Russia did not directly participate in this action and the entire plan was orchestrated by Aleksandar Vučić, but this is something for the court in Pristina to determine!
Russian influence is significantly more present in North Macedonia, but still limited thanks to the country’s NATO membership (since 2020) and its orientation towards EU integration. Moscow opposed the Prespa Agreement with Greece and North Macedonia’s NATO membership.
Russia has sought to influence Skopje through pro-Russian political parties and far-right groups, particularly during the country’s name change crisis. Investigative journalists have published detailed articles on the attempted coup in Macedonia on April 27, 2019, when Zoran Zaev was nearly killed, for which Macedonian security services blamed Russian and Serbian intelligence. Reports from the Macedonian security service also mention Politika newspaper journalist Miroslav Lazanski, who was later appointed Serbia’s ambassador to Moscow.
To this end, a strong propaganda campaign was used using Russian narratives through local media, especially on the Internet and social media. Despite some successes and the return to power of the pro-Russian VMRO-DPMNE party, today the country has significantly increased its resistance to Russian influence, mainly thanks to its integration into NATO security structures. Moreover, the current government in Skopje is aware that it is the Kremlin itself that is reinforcing the Bulgarian narrative regarding the position of the Bulgarian minority in North Macedonia.
Among Albanians, Russia does not find suitable ground for its activities, but is actively trying to destabilize their relations with the Euro-Atlantic world!/ TheGeopost