Analysis of ratings: how the SDP, after hitting its lowest point in a century last year, experienced a surge in popularity
By Jasmin Klarić
For a political party, it’s always good to end the year with a higher rating than it had in January. Even if it’s just a fraction of a percentage point, a positive trend is always an encouragement for the days ahead. The Social Democratic Party of Croatia (SDP) ended 2024 with a survey rating 54 percent higher than at the start of the year. In January, it had 14.7 percent support; by December, it had climbed to 22.6 percent.
This explosion, which makes the predictions of SDP President Siniša Hajdaš Dončić (elected this autumn as the successor to Peđa Grbin) about soon becoming the leading party seem far from exaggerated, comes after years of scraping the bottom of public support. Wounded by its own weaknesses, internal conflicts, and HDZ’s resilience to scandals and failures, the SDP had been recording its lowest levels of support in this century year after year. Four years ago, it dropped to 14.2 percent, then to 13.8 percent in 2022, and sank further to 13.1 percent the year before last.
Elections: the bad and the good news
The jump in 2024, however, should not have surprised anyone. Even with low support, the SDP remained the strongest opposition party, which inevitably boosted its numbers ahead of parliamentary elections. What happened, however, exceeded many expectations.
The bad news is that—it wasn’t enough. The SDP coalition’s numbers at the ballot boxes were not enough to threaten another victory for HDZ and Andrej Plenković in the parliamentary and European elections. This led to Grbin’s departure, but the party retained over 20 percent support, a level it hadn’t reached in the last five years. There’s no need to elaborate on how its candidate fared in the recently concluded presidential elections.
Necessary progress in local elections
Among the string of optimistic news for the SDP, it should also be noted that the phrase “HDZ leads, and all others are far behind”—a staple in every party rating report at the start of this decade—no longer holds true. The HDZ still has an advantage, but it is no longer overwhelming—December 2024’s gap of 4.7 percentage points is incomparable to the 12.4 points of 2023 or the 15-point gap of 2022. After a long time, Plenković and his party can feel the SDP breathing down their necks, and the nervousness is palpable.
The numbers from the polls will need to be translated into progress in local elections. In the two main battlegrounds, Zagreb and Split, Hajdaš Dončić’s party stands no chance of winning. It will be a success if they manage to slightly improve their dismal results from 2021. This is why retaining Rijeka is a key point—whatever they achieve in counties and smaller cities, losing Rijeka would be an ultimate defeat, painting SDP’s prospects in dark tones again.
The role of Zoran Milanović
Many will rightly point out that the rise in ratings is, in fact, the Zoran Milanović effect. The man who unsuccessfully tried to meddle in the April parliamentary elections from his position as president and then crushed, overpowered, and spat out the competition in the presidential elections.
However, since April, even though Milanović reduced his public appearances for a few months, the SDP’s rating hasn’t fallen below 20 percent. If they manage to maintain this growth trend until the local elections—and HDZ, shaken by Primorac’s defeat, continues its downward trajectory—Hajdaš Dončić’s “prophecy” will come closer to reality.
Source: Telegram.hr