Zoran Milanović has achieved a historic second presidential term, securing 74.68% of the vote and defeating HDZ candidate Dragan Primorac by an unprecedented margin of approximately 49%. This landslide victory marks the largest percentage difference in Croatian presidential election history.
Political analysts attribute Milanović’s success to his ability to retain his voter base while attracting new supporters, analyses Vecernji.hr, an independent media outlet in Croatia.
Dragan Bagić noted that Milanović not only maintained his previous level of support but also expanded it, a rare feat in Croatian politics. “This demonstrates Milanović’s ability to resonate beyond his traditional voter base,” Bagić explained.
Višeslav Raos highlighted Milanović’s extraordinary achievement, comparing it to previous elections. “Even Franjo Tuđman, Croatia’s first president, did not secure such a percentage,” he said. Raos emphasized that Milanović’s performance eclipsed the results of HDZ’s Jadranka Kosor in 2005 and Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović in 2014.
However, analyst Davor Gjenero warned against interpreting the results as a plebiscitary mandate. “While Milanović won convincingly, no political option in Croatia commands overwhelming support. His absolute numbers are higher than Grabar-Kitarović’s in 2014 but remain below Ivo Josipović’s 2009 total,” Gjenero said.
The loss has sparked outrage and frustration within HDZ’s ranks. Critics within the party blamed Primorac’s lack of authenticity and failure to connect with voters. Many also pointed fingers at Milanović’s bold rhetoric, which, despite its polarizing nature, managed to galvanize his supporters.
Political commentators speculate that the rift between the President’s Office (Pantovčak) and the government (Banski dvori) will persist during Milanović’s new term. Analysts also suggest Milanović might attempt to influence political dynamics in Bosnia and Herzegovina, specifically targeting the HDZ-supported political bloc led by Dragan Čović.
Višeslav Raos described Dragan Primorac’s performance in the presidential election as a debacle. He noted that a significant portion of HDZ voters and party members failed to see Primorac as an authentic candidate, largely due to his nonpartisan status and his previous expulsion from HDZ after running against the party’s official candidate. Low voter turnout was particularly evident in regions where HDZ traditionally dominates, such as Split-Dalmatia County and the City of Zagreb. In these areas, a notable number of invalid ballots were also recorded.
On the other hand, Raos highlighted that Zoran Milanović was not merely a left-center candidate. Over his five-year term, Milanović’s sovereignist policies garnered support from right-center and even far-right voters. Raos predicts that Prime Minister Andrej Plenković will attempt to shift public focus toward other issues, such as upcoming local elections, in an effort to minimize the impact of the presidential election outcome.
Political analyst Davor Gjenero argued that HDZ failed to manage this election due to their poor choice of candidate. He stated that Prime Minister Plenković now finds himself in a position of serious political defensiveness. “It is paradoxical that Plenković’s parliamentary victory over Milanović, which is far more important, now seems smaller by comparison,” said Gjenero. He added that HDZ’s inability to mobilize its voter base contributed significantly to Primorac’s overwhelming defeat.
Gjenero concluded that this misstep represents a significant error by HDZ leadership and signals deeper challenges ahead for the party. Meanwhile, Milanović’s record-setting victory demonstrates his ability to extend his appeal beyond traditional left-leaning voters, further complicating the political landscape for HDZ.
The fallout from this election is likely to reverberate through Croatia’s political scene, with implications for both upcoming local elections and HDZ’s broader strategy moving forward.
Milanović’s victory reflects shifting political trends in Croatia, with many cities turning in favor of his platform. The map of voter distribution shows a “red wave” across the country, signaling a significant challenge for HDZ moving forward.
As Prime Minister Andrej Plenković faces increasing pressure, the question remains: can HDZ regain its footing, or will Milanović’s triumph redefine Croatia’s political landscape?