By Xhelal Neziri
The Prime Minister of Kosovo and leader of the Vetëvendosje party, Albin Kurti, secured yet another electoral victory. With a decline that was not as significant as expected, Kurti announced the formation of his third government. He managed to win 42 percent of the votes, excluding those from the diaspora, which could push his support above 45 percent. With this, he will have around 46-48 MPs in the 120-member Parliament, which is insufficient to form a government without a coalition with another party.
There are three options on the table: the first is to include in the parliamentary majority the 10 minority MPs and the 10 ethnic Serb MPs, whose seats are guaranteed by the Constitution; the second – to form a coalition with one of the opposition parties – PDK, LDK, or AAK/NISMA; and the third – to not form a government at all, leaving room for a technical cabinet that would lead the country to new elections next year.
The option of a coalition with Srpska Lista, which won the majority of the guaranteed mandates, is unlikely. Including the 10 MPs from other minorities does not guarantee a parliamentary majority. Thus, Kurti is left with only one realistic option – a coalition with one of the three opposition parties. Since LDK leader Lumir Abdixhiku has announced that he will not enter negotiations to join the government, the choice narrows down to PDK, led by Memli Krasniqi, and AAK/NISMA, led by Ramush Haradinaj and Fatmir Limaj. Considering the harsh pre-election rhetoric and the public exclusion of a post-election coalition, forming a government with the Haradinaj-Limaj duo becomes almost impossible.
The most likely coalition on the horizon is the one with PDK. This party ran 61-year-old Bedri Hamza as its candidate for prime minister – a prominent figure with an economic expertise background. He has the image of a politician with strong managerial skills, having served two terms as Minister of Finance (2011-2013, 2017-2019), as the Governor of the Central Bank (2013-2017), and most recently as the Mayor of Mitrovica. During the campaign, LVV and PDK did not use harsh rhetoric against each other, which would otherwise make a governing coalition difficult. However, forming a government with PDK would be a blow to Kurti, who built his image as a politician fighting against the “corrupt” leaders of this party, Hashim Thaçi and Kadri Veseli, who have been on trial for war crimes at The Hague Tribunal since 2020. If the choice comes down to Srpska Lista or PDK, Kurti is more likely to choose the latter. However, both sides are expected to have major demands: while Srpska Lista may seek greater access to state institutions and control over key sectors, PDK might demand the prime ministerial position.
The third option is the least likely but also the riskiest for Kosovo. If the country heads to new elections, it risks falling into a political crisis similar to Bulgaria, where seven early parliamentary elections have been held in the last five years.
The election results and the government formation process are being closely monitored in Skopje, Belgrade, Tirana, Brussels, and Washington. Kurti is the key supporter of the VLEN coalition, which consists of four Albanian political entities currently part of the right-wing government led by Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski of VMRO-DPMNE. His defeat in Pristina would signify the beginning of the end for VLEN in Skopje, complicating Mickoski’s plans. In Tirana, he is seen more as a competitor than a collaborator of Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama, meaning that another Kurti-led government would further distance Kosovo from Albania. In Belgrade, Kurti is portrayed as a tough, inflexible, and stubborn interlocutor who complicates Serbia’s EU integration process. Meanwhile, in Brussels, and especially in Washington, his victory signals that the Pristina-Belgrade issue will not be resolved quickly or easily.
Nevertheless, the will of the majority of Kosovo’s citizens is what it is. LVV and Kurti continue to be seen as the most legitimate representatives of their interests, even though opposition parties have made significant gains compared to the 2021 elections.
