Vetëvendosje’s (VV) victory in Kosovo’s snap parliamentary elections was driven by a mix of political, economic and geopolitical factors, says German Balkans expert Johanna Deimel in an interview with DW.
She argues that the deep institutional crisis following the February 2025 elections — marked by the absence of a 2026 budget, stalled legislation, frozen EU and World Bank funds, and paralysed institutions — effectively turned the vote into a referendum on the state’s ability to function.
“Voters appeared to choose institutional stability,” Deimel said, noting that Kurti’s government also benefited from four new international recognitions and relatively solid economic data for 2024, with growth of 4.4%.
For the European Union, the result brings relief because Kosovo is expected to form a functional government quickly, but relations with Kurti remain strained. His unilateral approach, particularly in northern Kosovo, has carried high diplomatic costs, even as EU sanctions on Kosovo are being gradually lifted following the reinstatement of mayors in Serb-majority municipalities.
Despite frustration with the EU and the distant prospect of membership, Kurti’s nationalist-tinged rhetoric resonated with voters’ sense of pride, Deimel said.
The U.S. factor and the geopolitical signal
According to the September 2025 Eurobarometer, the United States remains Kosovo’s most important partner. The suspension of the strategic dialogue was a shock, but Washington’s renewed focus on Kosovo and Serbia through the National Defense Authorization Act, shortly before the elections, was widely seen as significant.
The legislation sets out clear objectives, including implementation of the Ohrid Agreement and a roadmap for normalising relations with Serbia, while opposing territorial swaps, partition or other border changes along ethnic lines. Deimel said this reaffirmed Kosovo’s territorial integrity and, indirectly, strengthened Kurti’s political standing.
Diaspora: influential but not decisive
Kosovo’s diaspora — approximately 700,000 people, according to the World Bank — plays a significant economic role, with remittances of around 1.2 billion euros, equivalent to 12.7% of the country’s GDP. Kurti, Deimel said, clearly factored in diaspora votes when he strategically scheduled the election for Dec. 28, during the holiday season.
However, preliminary results suggest VV delivered a strong performance even without diaspora votes. Kosovars living abroad are largely younger, working-age citizens with weaker ties to the 1999 war and independence struggle, making traditional parties such as the LDK, PDK and AAK less appealing to them.
Serbia ties and the risk of escalation
Deimel warned that both Kurti and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic benefit politically from tensions. With Kurti strengthened at home and Vucic under heavy domestic pressure, the temptation to escalate rather than de-escalate remains strong. A change of government in Belgrade, she added, would likely alter the entire dynamic, including relations between Kosovo and Serbia.
Presidential vote, the next test
The first major test of cooperation between the government and the opposition will be the presidential election in March. In the first two rounds, at least 80 of the 120 MPs are required, meaning VV will need the support of the opposition. Failure to elect a president, Deimel warned, would be “fatal”, pushing Kosovo towards new elections and an even deeper political crisis — particularly if the 2026 budget is not adopted by then.
“Compromise is essential in a democracy,” she said, adding that the strategy of institutional obstruction has proven politically costly and unsustainable.