The war in Ukraine has further polarized the international scene, deepening divisions with the return of Donald Trump to the White House. Experts say this could lead to an unpredictable approach to American policy towards Kosovo and the Western Balkans in general. University of Virginia Political Science Professor Besnik Pula says that President Trump’s expressed willingness to accommodate Russia’s demands first in Ukraine could also affect the Western Balkans.
The major geopolitical changes taking place on the international scene could create new challenges for Kosovo, say experts on the developments.
The war in Ukraine has further polarized international relations, deepening divisions between Europe and the US, as Donald Trump’s return to the White House brought a new dynamic to American politics.
Political science professor at the University of Virginia, Besnik Pula, says that Kosovo will definitely be affected by the developments taking place on the geopolitical plane in relations between the US – the EU and Russia.
“So far, this, let’s say, strategic reorientation of the US is at a rhetorical level, more than at a material level, but in international politics even words carry weight and have an impact. The question or issue is the willingness that President Trump has expressed to accommodate Russia’s demands first in Ukraine, but they have warned that there may be openings of geopolitical topics and at the European level, of the security architecture in Europe. If this becomes the topic of a discussion or a negotiation between Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin, then it will definitely have an impact on Kosovo as well,” Pula said.
Change of circumstances
During his first presidency 2017-2021, Donald Trump addressed the Kosovo issue mainly through an approach oriented towards economic agreements, although at that time discussions were also held on a territorial exchange between Kosovo and Serbia. The Washington Agreement of September 2020 was promoted as a success of his diplomacy, although the emphasis was mainly on economic cooperation and less on political issues.
“I think that the approach followed during President Trump’s first administration, what was a danger behind that agreement, has always been the idea of exchanging territories, which was almost openly discussed at that time. If there is a return of American interest in an agreement, let’s say, economic, between Serbia and Kosovo for a normalization, let’s call it that, I do not believe that the topic of territories will return as the main topic, because in Kosovo today there is no readiness for such an agreement. Also, the situation on the ground in the north has changed since then, the parallel structures do not have the influence that they had in that period. I also think that European intervention will be very powerful to prevent any exchange of territories because, as was said then as well as today, any initiative to exchange territories in Europe opens a Pandora’s box, which then has no end. For this reason, I do not think that the issue of territories will return as a topic on the agenda”, Pula emphasized.
Dialogue at the “mercy” of regional and European forces
According to him, at the moment this US administration has no particular interest in the Balkans or Kosovo. With the focus on other challenges such as China and the Middle East, as Pula has said, the Balkans may not be a priority for his administration, leaving the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue at the mercy of regional and European forces.
“Because its preoccupation today is major geopolitical issues. It’s trade relations with China, with the EU. There’s the conflict in Ukraine, the conflict in Gaza, and I don’t believe that the Balkans will be a priority at least once. And I think this observation is correct that, if there is to be any kind of American engagement in the Balkans, it will be in response to regional demands and perhaps also the influences that Serbia and President Vučić have on this administration. But, once again, I don’t believe that there will be any direct engagement, or at least it hasn’t been announced because of these larger preoccupations that today guide US foreign policy,” Pula emphasized.
But Pula does not rule out other forms of pressure on Kosovo, if there is an American commitment to push Kosovo and Serbia towards an agreement.
“If the normalization process begins, there may be other pressures that can be exerted, especially on Kosovo, and they may have economic and security consequences,” he stressed.
American Balkans expert Daniel Serwer says that the possible partition of Ukraine, as proclaimed by the US Secretary of Defense, would also have an effect on the Western Balkans.
The major change in US policy on Ukraine was proclaimed by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, and according to him, this has multiple consequences.
Serwer says this means ending U.S. support for Ukraine’s NATO membership, abandoning Ukraine’s war goal of regaining control of all of its sovereign territory. He also said it means stopping most U.S. aid to Ukraine, and excluding U.S. troops from any post-war peacekeeping force.
“The partition of Ukraine, as Hegseth proposes, would have a dramatic impact on the Balkans. Serbia would try to grab territory in Bosnia-Herzegovina as well as Kosovo. American and European troops would be at risk,” Serwer said.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine reaffirmed the divide between democratic and autocratic countries. Kosovo was among the first countries to support Ukraine, impose sanctions on Russia, and provide aid to Ukrainian refugees. Serbia, on the other hand, has refused to impose sanctions on Moscow and has maintained close ties with the Kremlin.
The EU-mediated dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia continues to be heralded as a roadmap for avoiding conflict and normalizing relations. The 2023 Ohrid Agreement created the framework for normalization, but the lack of implementation has raised questions about the seriousness of this process.
Western officials have consistently raised concerns that if Serbia and Kosovo do not reach a compromise, the situation could remain frozen, with the risk of escalating tensions in the north of the country.
Kosovo has been seeking stronger international support for membership in international organizations, including the Council of Europe and NATO’s Partnership for Peace, for years. However, without a final settlement with Serbia, membership in these organizations is seen as unlikely./ KOHA.NET
