PRISTINA– With 88% of votes counted across Kosovo, preliminary results have yet to provide a clear picture of the composition of the new parliament or the future government.

As expected, the ruling Vetevendosje (Self-Determination Movement) leads with the highest number of votes but has so far secured only 41.99%, failing to replicate its 2021 success, when it won over 50% and formed a government comfortably.

In Sunday’s election, the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) came second with 21.99%, followed by the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) at 17.68%. The Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK) secured 7.65%. Meanwhile, Serb List won 4.05%, maintaining dominance over the five other Serbian parties competing for the minority vote.

The final election results will determine the composition of the 120-seat parliament, with MPs subsequently electing the new government. Kosovo’s minority communities hold 20 reserved seats, including 10 guaranteed for the Serbian community.

According to Naim Rashiti from the Balkan Policy Group in Pristina, the results could shift after diaspora votes are counted. “Vetevendosje currently has around 42%, translating to 47 MPs. With votes from abroad, the party could gain two or three more seats,” Rashiti told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL).

The Central Election Commission (CEC) previously reported that 104,934 voters had registered from abroad, with 84,525 casting ballots via mail. The commission has yet to disclose how many voters cast conditional ballots, which are reserved for individuals whose names appear on the electoral list but who, for objective reasons, could not vote at their designated polling station.

Political analyst Artan Muhaxhiri believes that despite winning the elections, Vetevendosje may struggle to govern alone, unlike in its previous term.

“If Vetevendosje forms a government with only minority parties, it would be highly unstable, barely reaching 61 votes, with potential complications involving Serb List,” Muhaxhiri told RFE/RL. “On the other hand, even if opposition parties unite, their government would also be fragile, with little chance of long-term stability.”