A persistent high-pressure system known as a heat dome is expected to drive an unseasonably warm spell across the Balkans this week, meteorologists said, bringing temperatures several degrees above normal for late February and raising concerns about rapid snowmelt in mountainous regions.
After weeks of unsettled and rainy weather across much of Europe, a strengthening ridge of high pressure over the continent is forecast to push warmer air eastwards, creating a dome-like pattern that traps heat near the surface and suppresses cooler air from the north, forecasters said.
According to meteorological models cited by regional weather services, daytime temperatures in parts of Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and Montenegro could climb into the mid to high teens Celsius — well above seasonal averages — by mid-week. Some lower-lying areas may even approach 20°C (68°F), a figure more typical of early spring than the final days of winter.
The unusual warmth is associated with a strong heat dome aloft, a meteorological phenomenon in which a large pocket of high pressure acts like a lid, trapping warm air below and leading to prolonged periods of dry, stable and warmer conditions.
“Temperature departures from seasonal norms could be as much as 10 to 15 degrees Celsius above average in many parts of the region,” one forecast summary said, noting that central Europe and the Balkan peninsula would see the most pronounced anomalies.
Potential Risks: Snowmelt and Flooding
The rapid rise in temperatures is expected to accelerate snowmelt in the Alps and Dinaric mountain ranges, where heavy snowfall in recent weeks has built up significant snowpack. Officials and forecasters warned that meltwater could elevate river levels and increase the risk of localized flooding, particularly if warmer conditions persist or are followed by rainfall.
Meteorologists also cautioned that the pattern could be short-lived. Forecast models suggest that by early March, a shift in weather systems — including potential lows moving in from the Atlantic — could weaken the heat dome’s influence, bringing more dynamic conditions and a return to variable temperatures and precipitation.
‘Spring Taste’ in Mid-Winter
For residents of the region, the sunny and warmer days could feel like an early onset of spring, arriving while calendar winter still has days to go. “It will certainly feel more like late March or even early April,” one meteorologist said, noting that sudden swings in weather are not uncommon at this time of year.
The phenomenon underscores broader patterns of climate variability in Europe, where shifts between extreme cold and unseasonable warmth have become more pronounced in recent years, according to climate scientists and weather analysts.