Greece’s plan to establish self-sufficient army units on its Aegean islands — some located just 1.5 kilometres from Türkiye — has raised alarm in Ankara, where experts say the move risks violating international treaties and destabilising fragile regional ties.
Under the “Agenda 2030” military doctrine, Athens this week unveiled plans to deploy autonomous army formations on the islands. These units are intended to operate independently, producing their own food, generating power, and functioning without orders or resupply from central command — a shift aimed at reinforcing Greece’s military presence close to Turkish shores.
Turkish officials and analysts condemned the move as provocative and unlawful, citing post-World War treaties that bar the militarisation of several eastern Aegean islands.
“This is not a defensive posture. It is an aggressive step and a clear breach of international law,” said retired Rear Admiral Cihat Yaycı, a key architect of Türkiye’s maritime strategy known as the “Blue Homeland.”
He argued that Greece has long undermined the demilitarised status of the islands under the 1923 Treaty of Lausanne and the 1947 Paris Peace Treaty, which granted Greece sovereignty over 23 islands on condition that they remain non-militarised.
“The transfer of sovereignty came with a condition — demilitarisation. Greece has violated this,” Yaycı told Daily Sabah, a pro-government Turkish newspaper. He pointed to infrastructure developments including military airfields, tanks, and anti-drone systems as further evidence of Greece overstepping treaty limits.
The Greek defence ministry did not respond to Reuters’ request for comment.
“Autonomous” Forces Worry Ankara
Security experts say the concept of nearly independent military units is unprecedented in the Aegean and raises fears that Greece could use this structure to bypass treaty obligations under the guise of civilian resilience or territorial self-reliance.
“Greece is trying to militarise islands under the cover of autonomy and civilian systems,” said Murat Aslan, a defence analyst at the SETA Foundation and former Turkish army officer. “This creates legal ambiguity and makes it difficult for Türkiye to monitor what is civilian and what is military.”
Aslan warned that such formations could interfere with maritime trade and threaten freedom of navigation in one of Europe’s most sensitive geopolitical corridors.
Patterns of Escalation
The move follows years of tension between the two NATO members over maritime boundaries, energy exploration, migration, and the status of Cyprus. Although both sides have taken steps toward dialogue since 2023, mutual mistrust remains.
“This fits a wider pattern,” Aslan said, citing recent Greek military exercises simulating amphibious landings on Türkiye’s western coast. “You don’t buy offensive systems if your only goal is defence.”
Greece has recently secured thousands of armoured vehicles and high-tech systems through partnerships with the United States and Germany — often via grants or military aid.
“Rather than confront Türkiye directly, Greece uses its alliances to shift the balance without spending much money,” Aslan said. “It’s about building political support while painting Türkiye as the aggressor.”
Turkish Legal Response Considered
While Ankara does not view Greece as an immediate military threat, experts argue that the legal implications of the Greek plan could be severe. Yaycı urged the Turkish government to invoke Article 60 of the 1969 Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, which allows parties to suspend or terminate treaties in response to breaches.
“This would elevate the Aegean issue from a political dispute to a legal one with serious consequences,” Yaycı said, warning that Türkiye may be forced to consider diplomatic — and potentially military — countermeasures.
Türkiye has significantly upgraded its military-industrial capacity in recent years, emerging as a major exporter of drones, surveillance systems, and precision weaponry.
“We are in the Super League,” Yaycı said. “Greece is still in the amateur division.”
NATO Cohesion at Risk
Beyond bilateral tensions, Turkish officials are concerned that Greece’s deepening defence ties with countries like the U.S. and France could isolate Türkiye within NATO.
“Deploying foreign forces or cooperating militarily on demilitarised islands contradicts the spirit of the alliance,” Yaycı said. “It threatens cohesion on NATO’s eastern flank.”
U.S. deployments to the port of Alexandroupoli, just 40 km from Türkiye’s border, have further increased Turkish unease.
“These forward bases appear to serve as part of a containment strategy,” Aslan said.
Still, both analysts cautioned against an overreaction. “Türkiye faces many regional challenges — from Syria to Ukraine. But if militarisation continues, it will respond — legally, diplomatically and, if necessary, operationally,” Aslan said.
Greece Moves to Boost Reserves
In a separate development, Greece’s Defence Minister Nikos Dendias secured backing from the country’s top business federation for a key reserve reform.
The Hellenic Federation of Enterprises (SEV) on June 26 endorsed a plan to compensate reservists for lost wages during training. SEV President Spyros Theodoropoulos informed Dendias of the decision in writing.
Greece aims to follow models like Finland and Estonia, where reserve duty enjoys broad political and economic support. Additional reforms include ending conscription in the Navy and Air Force and managing reserve training via the state’s digital platform.
Separately, a new education policy allows siblings of military academy students to transfer to nearby universities — part of efforts to make military service more attractive for large families.