The European Union risks accelerating democratic backsliding in the Western Balkans by prioritising short-term stability over meaningful reform, according to a new report from the Balkans in Europe Policy Advisory Group (BiEPAG).
The policy brief, authored by Jovana Marović, criticises the EU for applying inconsistent standards across the region, praising formal accession progress while often overlooking deteriorating democratic norms. This mixed messaging, the report warns, is enabling entrenched political elites to consolidate power.
“At critical moments, the EU has traded its foundational values – democracy, the rule of law, and human rights – for pragmatic and strategic interests,” the report said. “As a result, formal integration has advanced, but the quality and credibility of reforms have not.”
The study highlights what it calls a growing credibility gap between the EU’s optimistic public statements and its more sceptical internal assessments, a disconnect that is eroding the bloc’s transformative power in the region and fuelling public disillusionment.
In Montenegro, for example, the Commission’s endorsement of a roadmap to close all accession chapters by 2026 was questioned by BiEPAG as potentially “wishful thinking”, noting a divergence between Brussels’ messaging and the more cautious views of key member states.
The report also raised concerns about the pace of Albania’s accession talks, suggesting that the rapid opening of negotiation clusters may reflect “a lowering of standards”, while Bosnia and Herzegovina was described as a case of “enlargement by exception, not by example”, with modest reforms rewarded despite ongoing political dysfunction.
Kosovo, the report argued, continues to be treated primarily as a security concern despite its alignment with EU foreign policy. Brussels imposed sanctions following unrest in the Serb-majority north, while “no comparable pressure” was applied to Serbia, which BiEPAG said had been credibly linked to destabilising activities in the region.
Serbia remains a “strategic partner but democratic outlier,” the report said, citing continued EU praise and financial support despite setbacks in judicial independence, media freedom and alignment with EU positions.
“By alternating generous praise with weak conditionality, tolerating bilateral vetoes and privileging short-term geopolitical deals over rule-of-law benchmarks, the EU has allowed domestic elites to capture the process while reform constituencies lose faith,” the report said.
It warned that unaddressed backsliding sends a message that geopolitical alignment and macroeconomic cooperation matter more to Brussels than democratic governance.
BiEPAG called for a clearer, more credible enlargement policy that matches rhetoric with enforcement. Without such recalibration, the report said, the EU risks losing influence in a region where other geopolitical actors are eager to fill the void.
“While the Western Balkans are more deeply integrated into EU programmes than ever before, public confidence in the accession process is declining,” the report concluded. “Disconnected praise not only weakens the EU’s normative leverage but also narrows the space for domestic democratic advocacy.”