Russia’s influence in North Macedonia was the main topic of the campaign for the presidential and parliamentary elections. The first round of the presidential elections took place on April 24, while the second round will be held on May 8 together with the regular parliamentary elections.
The two candidates with the most votes made it through to the run-off: Gordana Siljanovska – Dafkova from VMRO-DPMNE, who received almost 360,000 votes, and current President Stevo Pendarovski, who is seeking a second term as a candidate from LSDM, who received 180,000 votes. Siljanovska-Dafkova’s large lead heralds a certain victory, not only for her as the future president, but also for VMRO-DPMNE as the opposition party against LSDM, which has held central power in Skopje since 2017. Five candidates finished the race in the second round, including Bujar Osmani from the European Front and Arben Taravari from the Albanian opposition coalition VLEN. Meanwhile, the other three candidates have not hidden their sympathies towards Russia and China and have never condemned Russian aggression in Ukraine. These are Biljana Vankovska from LEVICA, Stevce Jakimovski from GROM and Maksim Dimitrievski from ZNAM, who even managed to win around 15 percent of the vote.
Osmani and Taravari have focused their campaign on the consequences of Russian influence in North Macedonia, accusing each other of laying the groundwork for Russia to have such a large influence in the country. Even Osmani’s slogan was “No to Russia, yes to Europe”. Osmani emphasized his position as Foreign Minister of North Macedonia, a country who is a member of NATO from 2020, and claimed that he had information that the Russian Federation had a great influence on some presidential candidates and that it was expected to influence the outcome of the parliamentary elections. On the other hand, Taravari accused that with the support of the “Open Balkans” by the government in Skopje, more space had been created for Russia’s influence, which it had achieved through Serbia.
However, for the Albanian candidates, the presidential elections were only a yardstick for the parliamentary elections. The focus of the political parties is on the parliamentary elections, as this is where the real power – legislative and executive – originates. However, the president is a ceremonial position without much influence on the development or implementation of policies. This is why it is not so attractive for either the parties or the voters. Incidentally, the second round of voting is scheduled for the day of the state election in order to meet the legal threshold of 40 percent voter turnout for the election of the president to be valid.
Russia and China continue to be the focus of the campaign. The director of the secret service Erold Musliu, an institution operating under the umbrella of President Pendarovski, claimed that Russia and China were working to seriously influence the outcome of the parliamentary elections. He alluded to the LEVICA party and its portal, which are promoting withdrawal from NATO and joining the BRICS states as an alternative to the EU.
Albanian political parties organized in two blocs – the European Front and VLEN – link Russian influence to the vote on constitutional amendments to include ethnic Bulgarians in the preamble, according to the French proposal of 2022. This document removed the Bulgarian veto is already a prerequisite for the country to continue the negotiation process for EU membership. The VMRO-DPMNE’s refusal to support these changes has led to several accusations against it that this party is indirectly working for Russia in this way. The delay in starting negotiations, accompanied by the ethnonationalist tones used by this party in its public vocabulary, has led to historically lower support for the EU integration process. In fact, some polls show that almost half of ethnic Macedonians believe that it is time to look for an alternative to European integration.
There is now no doubt that VMRO-DPMNE will win the parliamentary elections on May 8. This party has declared that it sees the Albanian opposition coalition VLEN as its partner in the future government. The European Front led by Ali Ahmeti’s DUI won the presidential elections against VLEN with a difference of almost 40,000 votes. This coalition now expects to win the parliamentary elections and represent the Albanians in the government. If VMRO-DPMNE, as the possible winner of the elections, passes the European front as the election winner among the Albanians, the situation could become tense and interethnic relations could deteriorate. North Macedonia has not legally regulated the issue of the winning party’s participation in power among the Albanians, but so far such a practice has become established due to the stability it creates.
If the election result is reasonably clear, the time after the election remains full of question marks. Which Albanian political bloc VMRO-DPMNE will form the government? Will the European Front and VLEN make the formation of the government dependent on the constitutional amendments, as they had promised by signing an earlier declaration? Is it likely that parliamentary elections will be held again in the country if VMRO-DPMNE fails to form a government? All these dilemmas bring back the fog of uncertainty in North Macedonia, strain inter-ethnic relations, increase the level of Euroscepticism and thus increase the possibilities of a stronger influence of Russia and China. Such a situation of geostrategic uncertainty would bring back the crisis of 2016, when Skopje barely broke free from Moscow’s embrace and became the 30th member of NATO.
