The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has maintained its forecast for Montenegro’s economic growth at 2.9% in 2024, according to its latest report, cited by MINA-business.
For 2025, the EBRD projects a 3% expansion of Montenegro’s economy. Meanwhile, the bank revised its 2023 growth estimate downward from the 3.8% forecasted in September to 3.1%.
The slowdown reflects weaker-than-expected tourism performance following a record-breaking 2023 season, the EBRD noted. Growth last year was primarily driven by private consumption and fixed capital investments, supported by expansionary fiscal policies and wage and pension increases.
However, net exports declined, partly due to a slowdown in tourist arrivals and a drop in immigration from Russia and Ukraine.
Inflation eased significantly from its peak of 17.5% in November 2022 to 2.1% in December 2023.
“GDP growth is expected to further slow to 2.9% this year and 3% next year, as rising tourism prices may curb demand, while the reconstruction of the Pljevlja Thermal Power Plant is set to drive up electricity imports,” the report stated. “On the other hand, rising wages could support strong consumption growth.”
