Milorad Dodik, the long-time leader of Bosnia’s Serb-dominated Republika Srpska (RS), is facing the most serious challenge to his rule in over two decades after being convicted in court, banned from public office for six years, and stripped of his presidency.
Dodik, 65, rose to power in 1998 with the backing of the international community, quickly becoming prime minister of the entity before turning against the West and aligning himself with Russia, Hungary and other illiberal governments. Over the years, he has embraced nationalist rhetoric, denied the 1995 Srebrenica genocide and sought to undermine Bosnia and Herzegovina’s state institutions.
The U.S. and Britain have sanctioned Dodik for corruption and destabilising activities, targeting his assets, family and political network. Germany and Austria imposed their own sanctions after his recent confrontation with Bosnia’s top court.
Legal battles and defiance
Dodik’s clash with the Office of the High Representative (OHR), the international body overseeing Bosnia’s peace accords, intensified last year when High Representative Christian Schmidt amended the criminal code to make it a crime to reject OHR decisions. Dodik, now RS president, responded by pushing laws annulling OHR authority – moves annulled by Schmidt.
In February, Bosnia’s state court sentenced Dodik to one year in prison and banned him from office for six years. He avoided jail by paying a legal fine permitted for sentences under one year. An appeals panel upheld the verdict on Aug. 1. Days later, Bosnia’s election commission revoked his mandate.
Dodik has refused to step down and announced plans to appeal to Bosnia’s Constitutional Court and the European Court of Human Rights. He has also floated the idea of holding referendums, including one on RS independence.
Eroding support
Despite his defiance, Dodik’s support has waned. A rally after his conviction drew a modest crowd, and key international partners have distanced themselves. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić has offered limited backing, while Budapest and Moscow remain his most vocal allies.
Dodik has been grooming potential successors, including his son and current Serb presidency member Željka Cvijanović. Analysts say his grip on power has been sustained by control over financial flows in RS, which faces a shrinking population, high emigration and fiscal crisis.
With his domestic and international standing diminished, political analysts say Dodik’s 27-year dominance over RS may be nearing its end – though they warn he remains capable of destabilising Bosnia in pursuit of personal and political survival.