The non-governmental organization Center for Research, Transparency, and Accountability (CRTA) has published a survey revealing that 61% of Serbian citizens support the protests and blockades following the recent incident in Novi Sad. The protests gained attention after President Aleksandar Vučić sarcastically challenged the opposition to participate in launching an advisory referendum about his potential removal, throwing down the gauntlet to the public.
The CRTA survey has become a significant turning point in Serbia’s political landscape. However, experts caution that while the statistics show significant potential, they do not necessarily indicate the imminent possibility of a democratic change in government.
Protests have been ongoing since the collapse of a canopy in Novi Sad, with widespread actions that continue to enjoy strong public support. The protest held at Slavija, part of the demonstrations, has become the largest civic protest in Serbia in this century, and support for the students, who have been blocking roads for over a month and a half, comes from various sectors of society.
Though the public’s dissatisfaction is evident, it is crucial to note that the protests are being led by students, not an alternative political party. This could create an illusion of maturity in the electorate’s readiness to remove the government democratically through elections.
The ruling party and its officials maintain firm support from their base. However, the CRTA survey also reveals that 10% of the supporters of the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) actually back the protests and student blockades.
Experts suggest that the government’s inadequate response to the crisis has shaken the trust of its voters, but the survey’s findings, according to our sources, reflect more about the potential to dampen current public discontent rather than signaling a crucial shift in voter behavior.
Dejan Bursać, a researcher at the Institute for Philosophy and Social Theory, notes that if the survey results are accurate, they would mark a significant departure from “everything we’ve seen before.” He explains that Vučić’s popularity has largely been based on the relatively strong economic performance in recent years, including growth in employment, wages, and foreign investments, particularly in contrast to the economic crisis during the government of Mirko Cvetković, which preceded the rise of the SNS.
Bursać observes a noticeable increase in dissatisfaction, particularly after the tragedy in Novi Sad and the subsequent government mishandling of the situation. He also points out that many who were previously ambivalent towards the regime are now mobilized against the government due to the tragedy.
“From this, we can conclude that although party rankings have not significantly changed, the main takeaway is that the opposition is missing the opportunity to mobilize discontent and become a serious force that could offer an alternative for dissatisfied voters,” Bursać argues.
However, Bursać remains skeptical that any significant changes would occur if elections were held now, given the opposition’s invisibility and the government’s firm control of the electoral apparatus. He adds that even a referendum on the president’s removal would not be a deciding factor, as no such referendum currently exists.
Alexander Ivković, a researcher at the Center for Contemporary Politics, points out that it is unlikely that all those who support the protests and blockades would turn out to vote, but he acknowledges that the potential exists for a segment of previously apathetic voters, particularly those influenced by the student protests, to become active in future elections.
“Even 10% of people who support the student protests are part of the government’s base. This indicates a segment of undecided voters who could be swayed by an alternative option, potentially damaging the government’s electoral chances. But this remains a potential rather than a certainty,” Ivković explains.
Whether the parliamentary opposition or a new political movement will be able to activate these voters remains an open question, and one that will only be answered in time.
Source: Danas.rs
