February is likely to be warmer than average across Balkans, according to long-range climate outlooks published by the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.
Based on around 400 forecast simulations from international weather centres, Copernicus said there is a 77% probability that average temperatures in the region will exceed seasonal norms for the 1993–2016 reference period.
The outlook projects a mean temperature anomaly of about 1.16 degrees Celsius above normal, with an increased likelihood that monthly averages could exceed the norm by more than 2 degrees Celsius. The probability of cooler-than-average conditions is considered low.
The forecast draws on ensemble models from eight forecasting centres, including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
Forecasters cautioned that long-range outlooks are subject to significant uncertainty and are intended to indicate broad monthly trends rather than specific local or day-to-day weather conditions across Greece and the wider region.