Western Balkan countries are stepping up defence cooperation and modernising their armed forces, largely with Western technology, but Serbia continues to balance between NATO partnerships and military ties with Russia and China, underscoring the region’s role as a miniature battleground of global rivalries.
Albania, Montenegro and North Macedonia are NATO members, while Kosovo and Bosnia seek entry. Serbia, formally neutral, participates in NATO’s Partnership for Peace but has deepened military cooperation with Moscow and Beijing.
“Security today is not only a defence issue. It is also political, economic and technological,” said Fatmir Mediu, a former Albanian defence minister. “The ties Serbia has built with Russia and China are a matter of real concern.”
Kosovo’s Defence Ministry said all weapons acquired in the past four years, mostly from the United States, Turkey and Germany, meet NATO standards. The Kosovo Security Force recently received U.S.-made Puma drones and is building its first munitions factory with Turkish support.
Bosnia’s armed forces remain aligned with NATO standards and plan to take part in 17 multinational exercises this year.
Serbia, meanwhile, has spent more on its military than any other country in the Western Balkans over the past five years, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). It allocated $2.2 billion in 2024, five times more than NATO member Albania.
Until Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Serbia relied heavily on Russian arms. It has since turned to China, purchasing combat drones and medium-range missile systems. In July, Serbian and Chinese special forces held their first joint exercises, drawing warnings from the European Union, which Serbia aspires to join.
“China today is Serbia’s biggest investor, with €7.2 billion. This year trade will reach €8.5 billion,” President Aleksandar Vucic said during a visit to Beijing last week, where he announced plans for new arms purchases.
Former NATO official Jamie Shea said Serbia’s balancing act makes it an attractive partner for China but a potential risk for regional security. “If the current geopolitical crisis escalates, Serbia’s neutrality would not be accepted,” he said. “Everyone would perceive it as an unreliable partner.”
Western analysts warn that Serbia’s military build-up, coupled with political tensions in Bosnia and Kosovo, could destabilise the region.
For Kosovo, Serbia remains the main security threat. Armed Serb groups attacked police in Banjska in 2023, killing one officer. Pristina accuses Belgrade of direct involvement, which it denies.
“The strongest guarantee is Kosovo’s NATO membership and a deeper partnership with the United States,” said Fidair Berisha, professor at Kosovo’s Public Security Academy.
Mediu urged closer regional cooperation, pointing to joint defence projects between Albania, Kosovo and Croatia. Serbia has condemned the initiative as a threat to its territorial integrity.
Shea said NATO should appoint a special envoy for the Balkans to monitor flashpoints. “You can be forgiven for losing a battle,” he said, quoting Napoleon, “but not for being caught unprepared.”