Despite these challenges, the EU faces mounting pressure to accelerate the process—both for strategic reasons and to counter Russian and Chinese influence in the Balkans.

By BV TEAM

The Western Balkans remain deeply entrenched in history, hindered by unresolved disputes with neighbors and a lack of strong political will for reforms—yet still clinging to the hope of a European future.

For the region’s 18 million people, the “European dream” is far from reality. Accession conditions have grown stricter, and enlargement fatigue within the European Union (EU) often manifests in vetoes and political blockades. Disagreements over the region’s turbulent past continue to obstruct its path forward, forcing it to advance toward Europe with its gaze fixed on history.

Still, the six Western Balkan nations—Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia—have set an ambitious goal: EU membership by 2030.

A New Push for Enlargement

In a landmark speech at the Bled Strategic Forum in Slovenia in 2023, the previous European Council President Charles Michel signaled a shift in the EU’s stance on enlargement.

“Enlargement is no longer a dream. It’s time to move forward. There is work to be done. It will be difficult, sometimes complex, and painful for both future members and the EU. But let’s be clear: if we want to be credible, we must set deadlines,” Michel said.

His statement reignited enthusiasm for EU enlargement, especially after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which forced Brussels to reassess its geopolitical priorities. The war has strengthened the argument for accelerating EU expansion—not just to the Western Balkans, but also to Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia.

Montenegro’s chief EU negotiator, Predrag Zenović, underscored the urgency:

“This government has the ambition for Montenegro to become the EU’s 28th member by 2028. That slogan defines our program, objectives, and priorities in the accession process,” he said.

Brussels has already granted candidate status to Ukraine and Moldova and resumed membership talks with Albania and North Macedonia. Meanwhile, Kosovo secured visa liberalization and is under pressure to implement agreements with Serbia as part of its EU path.

But European enlargement is no longer a purely administrative process. The security threat posed by Russia has turned it into a geopolitical imperative.

Challenges on the Road to Membership

Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama acknowledged the frustrations that have come with the prolonged accession process.

“We have moved beyond the phase of disappointment and into a new one—negotiations. The absence of talks was frustrating. Now, while this phase brings its own challenges, it is a process worth undertaking, as it secures the future of our children,” he said.

Yet political analyst Aleksandër Çipa argued that the EU’s hesitation has often been shaped by geopolitical considerations rather than merit-based criteria.

“The obstacles have been linked, first and foremost, to Europe’s mentality. Enlargement criteria have sometimes been shaped by geostrategic concerns. But today, with shifting global dynamics, we see a clear interest from Brussels and EU states to accelerate the process,” he said.

Bilateral disputes within the region remain a stumbling block—such as Bulgaria’s veto against North Macedonia, Greece’s concerns over Albania, and the unresolved tensions between Kosovo and Serbia. These internal divisions have slowed progress, despite increasing EU pressure to move forward.

Political analyst Ylber Hysa added that the challenge is twofold:

“Kosovo must meet complex requirements—not only legal but also political. But the challenge also lies in the EU’s willingness to expand and take this process seriously.”

A Cautious EU Approach

The EU’s biggest enlargement wave came in 2004, when 10 Central and Eastern European nations—including the Baltic states, Poland, and Hungary—joined the bloc. That expansion successfully pulled them out of Russia’s sphere of influence.

But lessons from past enlargements have made the EU more cautious. Eric Maurice, an analyst at the European Policy Center, warned that the Western Balkans’ path to membership will not be quick.

“Expectations must be managed—both among candidate countries and EU citizens. The 2004 enlargement took a decade. The Western Balkans have been in the process for years, but the road ahead is still long,” he said.

While the EU has floated 2030 as a potential deadline, Maurice was skeptical:

“No country will be ready to join the EU by 2030. The accession process is lengthy and highly technical. Managing expectations is crucial, and at the same time, EU citizens need to understand why enlargement is a geopolitical investment.”

One key concern is whether new members will fully uphold the rule of law. The experiences of Hungary and Poland—both of which backslid on democratic norms after joining—have made Brussels wary of rushing enlargement.

“The rule of law will be at the center of accession talks more than ever before. Past expansions have shown that democratic progress is not irreversible. We’ve seen regression in Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. This mistake will not be repeated,” Maurice said.

The Longest Enlargement Freeze in EU History

The EU has not expanded since Croatia joined in 2013—marking the longest pause in the bloc’s enlargement history. The previous longest gap was between 1986 (when Spain and Portugal joined) and 1995 (when Austria, Sweden, and Finland entered). But unlike today, that pause was due to a lack of applicants, not EU reluctance.

With no new members expected in the next five years, the current freeze could be the longest in the history of European integration.

The 2004 enlargement faced public skepticism, particularly in France, where fears over labor market disruptions led to the rejection of the EU’s constitutional treaty in 2005. Maurice noted that similar concerns could emerge regarding the Western Balkans, Ukraine, and Moldova.

“In countries like France, we see economic, social, and security fears regarding new members. These concerns are not just about candidate countries but reflect broader anxieties among EU voters,” he said.

Despite these challenges, the EU faces mounting pressure to accelerate the process—both for strategic reasons and to counter Russian and Chinese influence in the Balkans. But as the bloc weighs its next moves, one lesson from past expansions remains clear: rushing the process without ensuring democratic stability risks long-term consequences.