The stability and integration of the Western Balkans is not a peripheral issue but a central strategic test for Europe, argues political risk analyst Eduard Vasilj. Without a credible and accelerated pathway into the European Union, the region risks renewed instability, foreign interference and political fragmentation that could directly undermine European security.
Geopolitical stakes
Three decades after the Balkan wars, unresolved ethnic disputes, fragile institutions and weak governance continue to shape politics. Bosnia and Herzegovina remains divided, Kosovo’s statehood is contested, and Serbia balances between Brussels, Moscow and Beijing.
Russia, China and Türkiye have entrenched their influence. Moscow dominates parts of the energy sector and exploits political patronage. China has poured billions into infrastructure, often under opaque financing, while Türkiye blends investment with cultural diplomacy. Their centralised decision-making allows them to move faster than the EU, which is bound by consensus rules.
Political and economic imperatives
Corruption, clientelism and fragile judicial systems remain barriers to reform. Vasilj argues that the EU must maintain strict conditionality but also provide tangible incentives. Regional cooperation through the Berlin Process and other initiatives is essential to create a cohesive bloc capable of engaging with the EU on equal terms.
Economic weaknesses – unemployment, poor infrastructure and low foreign investment – fuel public disillusionment. In 2022, China invested around €1.4 billion in Serbia, roughly the same as all 27 EU member states combined. By mid-2024 it became the country’s largest foreign investor. Russia retains control of key energy assets in Serbia and Bosnia, while Türkiye holds a strategic stake in Montenegro’s Port of Bar.
Integration into the EU single market would provide access to capital, technology and consumer bases, while securing critical raw materials such as Serbia’s lithium, Bosnia’s bauxite and Albania’s hydropower.
Security dimension
The security environment remains fragile. Only Albania, Montenegro and North Macedonia are NATO members. Serbia maintains close ties with Moscow and Beijing, raising risks of intelligence leaks. Russian hybrid operations, including cyberattacks and disinformation, have already targeted Montenegro and Bosnia.
Vasilj argues that deeper NATO engagement – through joint exercises, intelligence sharing and capacity building – would bolster resilience and deter destabilisation.
Recommendations and risks of delay
He outlines five priorities: clear EU conditionality tied to reforms; targeted investment in infrastructure and digital connectivity; stronger NATO cooperation; support for civil society and reconciliation; and coordinated EU–U.S. diplomacy to counter external influence.
Failure to accelerate integration, he warns, risks renewed ethnic tensions, migration pressures and growing space for revisionist powers. “In the Balkans, geopolitical vacuums are never empty for long,” Vasilj writes. “Hesitation is not neutrality – it is the gradual surrender of influence.”