By Denko Maleski
From a bipolar world that lasted about forty years, through a unipolar one for the past thirty-five years, to a multipolar world, the patterns of international politics have continuously changed since World War II. Some have called this latest shift in the structure of international relations the “new normal.” If only it were that easy. It is more accurate to call it the “new abnormal” because before reaching the “new normal,” we must first go through the “new uncertainty.”
Just as after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, one person is now considered responsible for everything. Back then, it was the General Secretary of the Communist Party of the USSR, Mikhail Gorbachev; today, it is U.S. President Donald Trump. In both cases, the leaders of the superpowers declared bankruptcy. In the first case, the USSR went bankrupt due to an excessively costly arms race; in the second, America went bankrupt in its attempt to impose its hegemony over the entire world. This is how a realist narrative of changes in international politics over the past decades might unfold.
These swift and unexpected unilateral moves by the leaders of the USSR, Gorbachev, and the U.S., Trump, caught their allies off guard, leaving them like “fish out of water.” I remember that even for Mikhail Gorbachev, it was easier to deal with U.S. President Ronald Reagan than with his ally Erich Honecker of East Germany or President Nicolae Ceaușescu of Romania. Just as today, Trump finds it easier to deal with Russia than with Emmanuel Macron of France or Keir Starmer of the United Kingdom. Then, as now, the political elites of the former allies of the great powers are fiercely defending their endangered political power. Ceaușescu defended his power literally until the very last moment of his life, which ended before a firing squad. However, the process was unstoppable. With Russia’s power retreating within its borders, Eastern Europe became a true political purgatory—wiping out all the existing political elites to the last one. The withdrawal of American power from Europe seems poised to have the same effect on today’s European political elites.
As America goes, so goes the world, says an old saying. If that is true, then the rise of right-wing influence in Europe is inevitable. In that case, institutions like NATO, which symbolized the previous multilateralism, will either disappear or, if they continue to exist, will become empty shells.
Something dramatically new is emerging in international relations. And while, in response to the “new normal,” European allies are frantically convening meetings at various levels, countries like Macedonia, which are not EU members, will wait to hear their fate. Because Europe is facing dramatic changes filled with uncertainty. My initial reaction was that, in the dispute between transatlantic allies, our place is with Europe, as we are a European country. Our long-term national interest as a state on the European continent dictates this. But now, as the situation has turned into a “save yourself however you can” scenario, Macedonian politicians have no time for long-term state strategies. This should have been considered in 1991 when we peacefully gained our independence. And not just by declaring that the EU and NATO are our strategic goals, but by actually achieving those goals through bold action by politicians willing to swallow live frogs and make unpopular decisions to save the people and the state. None of that happened: while they parroted “EU/NATO,” time slipped away.
Today, when the very existence of the EU is in question, forced by real political changes we cannot keep up with and having no other alternative, politicians are turning to America. We have “consumed” the time for EU membership, and since we are not at the table, we will once again be on the menu. There is plenty of responsibility to be shared among all parties from independence until today for this delay. But the biggest obstacle was Macedonian nationalism—this paralyzing state of mind that often transcends party lines and prevents us from adapting quickly to a constantly changing world. That same mindset stopped us six years ago from decisively resolving the dispute with Bulgaria, following Brussels’ instructions and the EU’s agreed position.
Now, when it is completely clear that the European option for Macedonia is off the table for the foreseeable future, America and Trump are the only remaining hope for our politicians. Hope for what? Hope that the current political class will remain in power and withstand external pressures as well as the internal interethnic tensions looming on the horizon. That is the calculation, except everything is changing, and neither Europe nor America is what they once were.
