What is happening in Serbia today is not entirely understood by public opinion in the Balkan region and beyond.
A wave of mass protests erupted in November 2024 in the city of Novi Sad, following the collapse of a canopy at the railway station that caused the deaths of 16 people. Since then, the protests have spread to almost all cities and settlements across Serbia.
The movement is led by students, who view the tragedy as a result of corruption and poor construction standards allegedly practiced by a Chinese company. They are demanding accountability for the structural failure and the lives lost. Educational institution blockades began on November 22 at the Faculty of Dramatic Arts in Belgrade, after students paying tribute to the victims were attacked. Within days, the protests expanded to other universities and high schools.
Every Friday, demonstrators organize an action called “Stop, Serbia!” by blocking traffic in various cities. These blockades later became a daily occurrence in some areas.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, who appeared to have firmly consolidated power and was seen as untouchable, suddenly emerged as vulnerable. The protests are becoming increasingly large, while the presence of some pro-Russian structures within the demonstrations has raised many questions.
To discuss this issue, I chose to speak with my colleague from Serbia, Branko Čečen, a well-known and influential figure in Serbian public opinion. He is the former director of the Center for Investigative Journalism of Serbia (CINS), and remains active as a journalist, editor, and experienced trainer in numerous workshops on improving journalist safety held throughout Serbia.
Interview by Xhelal Neziri
IT IS CHAOTIC, COMPLICATED AND VERY EMOTIONAL, SITUATION
BalkanView: What is happening in Serbia?
Branko Čečen: To put it simply – a rebellion against the consequences of wildly spread corruption, electoral fraud and general unlawful behaviour of the government. After many similar ones, the obvious case of corruption causing the death of 16 people instigated the explosion of anger and frustration of citizens. Harsh reaction of the government towards the protesters caused students to start their own protest, which has galvanized citizens and led them to what is now 8th month of constant protest and resistance against the government. The regime is refusing to meet the protest of universities and citizens with acceptable compromises. Aleksandar Vučić and his collaborators simply can’t allow themselves to lose power, because many will end up in prison for what they have done so far. Vučić himself is breaking the Constitution daily. It seems that the government counted on the attrition to quell down the protest, and when this didn’t happen, it increased police repression, judiciary pressure and violence by informal groups of civilians with criminal background. It is chaotic, complicated and very emotional, situation.
BalkanView: Who is demanding the overthrow of Vučić’s regime — the students or the opposition parties?
Branko Čečen: Both. Student demands are not political. They only wanted persons responsible for corruption and its consequences to be kept responsible by the judiciary system which should have no other purpose than that one. However, like all other society actors who tried to talk to this regime in logical and legal terms, after months of protest, even students learned the basic truth independent journalists, civil sector and political activists have learned long time ago: Aleksandar Vučić has no intention of backing up for even an inch. Even though it is clear what has happened, and media have discovered that the corruption and mismanagement stems from his very surrounding, if not from himself, he wouldn’t back down for the life of him. The decision of students to demand an election comes from realisation that citizens are tired both physically and psychologically, and that Vučić will give them nothing. Vučić wants to ware citizens and students down, too. The elections, even though the conditions are far from fair, as established by the numerous international observations, are seen as the only peaceful and legal way to end this whole crisis. Opposition will take part in some way, but political option on their side of the playing field, which receive no backing from students, stand little chance. By demanding an election, however, students entered the political arena. Students are announcing their own list of non-political figures they will put forward to stand on the ballot. Latest survey say over half of the population is ready to support such list. There is little room for opposition in that situation, and that is not fair – activists from opposition have suffered the most under this regime, and they will have no chance of gaining significant political capital. The “student government”, however, would be an interim one, with a mandate of creating regular conditions for an election. After that, the political playing-field would be levelled and opposition would have its chance.
BalkanView: Vučić says this is a “colorful revolution” financed from abroad to weaken Serbia. On what does he base this claim?
Branko Čečen: Nothing. He showed no evidence whatsoever, but we are used to it. It is a false accusation which serves his propaganda purposes, but even though media working for him (that is almost all media in Serbia) did their worst to support that claim, they too came up with nothing. I can sympathise with a sense of scepticism about the origins of surprising level of organisation and smart tactics of student movement, but I do believe this movement is authentic. And then, EU, Germany, France, USA, all those countries are great friends with Vučić. Who, exactly, is behand the revolution, then? This is a small country, we have the best investigative journalism around, if this was a ploy by “foreign actors” we would have known about it by now. At the same time, there is so much evidence about the very suspicious ways in which our government openly cooperates with Russian secret services and all other authoritarian regimes, with no one asking too many questions about that, like that is normal and good. Serbia is going through its social and political catharsis, right now. Let’s not stain such a fine, once in a life-time event with unfounded claims of a failing autocrat.
YOU CAN’T WIN THE ELECTIONS IN SERBIA, OR THE BALKAN, WITHOUT NATIONALISTS
BalkanView: Are pro-Russian structures infiltrated in the protests? Is there a risk that these structures could “hijack” the revolution?
Branko Čečen: Every event like this one, is always infiltrated by every entity which has any kind or real or potential interest in it. It would be naïve to think it can be avoided. When a crisis happens, so much can change, and secret services are always competing in gaining a foothold with the possible new decision-makers. We’ve seen this all through the nineties, and especially on the occasion of toppling Milosevic. God only knows who infiltrated this protest in one way or another, by now. This, however, doesn’t mean “pro-Russian structures”, as you diplomatically called them, have taken over, or that supporters of Vladimir Putin are a majority in Serbia or on Universities. There are Russophiles among students and citizens, that is a given. It is the regime who have been spreading Russian propaganda in Serbia, for more then 13 years, and the dream of “Big Russian brother” who will protect little Serbia is, of course, much older than that. I understand the sensitiveness of the region about Serbian nationalism, after what Serbia has done not so far in the past. It is natural. But the very base of the success of this protest lies in the fact that it is beyond political ideas, ideologies or party inclinations. The roof of the railway station falling on your child, killing it, is equally unacceptable to persons from far right, to far left, and everyone in between. Serbian nationalists are standing shoulder to shoulder with Bosniaks or leftists, with a collective goal. That is exactly why the regime has little chance of surviving this crisis. Nationalistic rhetoric of some persons invited to speak at the meeting organized by students is probably an attempt of a rational approach to the elections they are demanding – this is a nationalistic country, just like every other country in this region, drenched in such narratives and myths. You can’t win the elections in Serbia, or the Balkan, without nationalists. So far, students have dismantled many prejudices, including nationalistic ones. For the first time since before Milosevic, Bosniaks feel accepted in the country they live in. An outpouring of love, respect and appreciation from one nation to another overwhelmed me, on social networks, in the towns and cities all over Serbia, exactly because I am very, very fed up with any kind of nationalism. There wasn’t a single nationalistic incident at any of student-organized events. I have no reason to believe one meeting with couple of nationalists at the microphone has changed deeply unionistic and egalitarian actions they have done so far.
PROTESTERS SEE NO WAY BACK
BalkanView: The protesters are demanding early elections, but the opposition in Serbia appears weak. How could the goal of changing the regime be achieved?
Branko Čečen: It is question millions of us are running through our heads. And especially about changing the regime peacefully. Vučić has suffocated the political opposition and has been doing so since the very start of his rule. His regime arrested over four hundred active members of Democratic party within a couple of years after coming to power, for an example. Little wonder that opposition is undeveloped. It has not been aloud to develop. However, protesting citizens, even according to surveys, are ready to stand behind any option offered to them by the students, or any option students would support. Against them, they have a huge system of rigging the elections, completely coopted institutions working for the regime and breaching laws and the Constitution in doing so, not to mention secret and uniformed police, obviously willing to do whatever it takes. We have seen that in almost all elections we had since Vučić is in power. Whoever wants to win here, must beat some very unfavourable odds. So, nothing is for certain in that respect. However, with the regime raging with oppression, and the adversary reaction of citizens, it seems that those who protest see no way back. If Vučić wins, there will be hell to pay for what citizens and students have done to him so far. So, there is no going back, and the elections are the only bloodless way out. However, Vučić holds no election he is not absolutely certain he will win. So, we are still far from that option. Serbia will need to force him into it.
BalkanView: What could be Vučić’s alternative, or what could the protests produce — a pro-European leadership or one that would be even closer to Russia and China?
Branko Čečen: It is hard to expect any inclination towards BRICS and away from Europe. Not because Russia and China are unpopular, but because over 70% of our foreign trade is with EU. Any new government simply must keep working with EU, if it doesn’t want an economic meltdown on its hands. Vučić is destroying the budget right now, and after all this is over, and if Vučić falls, new government would be very dependent on foreign financial aid. And Russia is not an address at which to ask for money. So that is certain. On the political side of things, the values students have promoted, and citizens aligned behind, are very European. But EU has been supporting Vučić’s regime for years and years, completely ignoring his annihilation of all things European – rule of law, democracy, human and citizen rights, you name it. Vučić himself has trashed EU in his media all along, destroying euro-enthusiasm in every way he found, while still being supported by that same EU. I presume he was the boss, EU had interests, he did his best to deliver on those interests and was more or less left to his own devices to do whatever he wants, internally, with several hundreds of millions of euros from EU, annually. That is why EU is mostly absent from this crisis. They are OK with Vučić, they showed us as much (repeatedly, I might add), for as long as he is the boss and can deliver what EU needs from Serbia (concessions in negotiations with Kosovo, something in relations to Russia, migrant policy, Lithium…). EU is waiting out to see who is going to win and though there are some signs lately that they are not betting on Vučić any longer, we haven’t seen EU defending EU values in Serbia for a very, very long time in practice, only verbally. Ergo, EU is not very popular in Serbia right now, that much is both logical, ant true. At the same time, Vučić controls very little in Serbia these days, and he is no longer in position to deliver much to anyone. EU is, logically, at least out of caution, looking further for new partners in Serbia, just in case, I’d say. No one can predict the outcome of this crisis, let alone what the government would look like after Vučić. But we know all to well how it looks now, and what we see is simply unacceptable, for most citizens of Serbia.