Serbia is facing growing pressure to recalibrate its foreign policy as tensions rise between its European Union aspirations and its ties with Russia and the United States, analysts say.
Two key issues are shaping Belgrade’s diplomatic position: a warning from Brussels over possible suspension of EU funding and negotiations over U.S. sanctions on Serbia’s oil sector.
The European Union has signalled it could withhold funds from its 6-billion-euro Growth Plan for the Western Balkans for 2024–2027 unless Serbia revises recently adopted judicial laws, citing concerns over judicial independence.
At the same time, Serbia is engaged in talks linked to U.S. sanctions on its national oil company due to Russian ownership, while discussions continue with Moscow over a potential sale of its majority stake.
Analysts say recent political developments in Hungary, including the departure of long-time leader Viktor Orban, could remove an important ally for Belgrade within the EU.
“Serbia’s position is structurally different from Hungary’s, particularly because EU membership is not a question for Budapest, while it remains central for Belgrade,” said for RFE/RL analyst Zoran Milivojevic.
Jelica Minic of the European Movement in Serbia said the country’s internal political divisions and lack of a strong opposition alternative complicate comparisons with Hungary’s recent electoral shift.
“Expectations for major political change exist, but the context in Serbia is far more constrained,” she said for RFE/RL.
Serbia has not opened new EU negotiation chapters in recent years and continues to face criticism for failing to align with EU foreign policy, particularly over sanctions on Russia.
While Belgrade maintains close energy ties with Moscow, including continued gas supplies, it has also sought to improve relations with Washington. However, expectations of a reset in ties with the United States have not fully materialised.
U.S. expert Edward Joseph said Washington has shown limited interest in Serbia’s balancing approach between global powers.
Meanwhile, Eric Gordy of University College London said the European Union has focused primarily on formal reforms and economic issues, while a stronger emphasis on democratic standards and fundamental rights would be needed.
Recent assessments by international organisations, including Freedom House, have pointed to a decline in political freedoms in Serbia, reinforcing EU concerns over governance and rule of law.
Analysts say Serbia’s strategy of balancing between major powers is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain amid shifting geopolitical dynamics and growing external pressure.