Kosovo is seeking to use geopolitical shifts to widen support for its statehood, nearly 18 years after declaring independence, as several Muslim-majority countries and others continue to withhold recognition, RFE/RL reported.
This year, President Vjosa Osmani said three states – Kenya, Sudan and Syria – recognised Kosovo, marking the first time since 2015 that Pristina secured three recognitions in a single year. Syria’s move followed a change of government in Damascus and a stronger U.S. footprint in the region, illustrating how external realignments can shape Kosovo’s diplomatic gains.
Despite its Muslim-majority population, Kosovo has been recognised by only slightly more than half of the 57 members of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation. Before Sudan and Syria, the last Muslim-majority country to extend recognition was Bangladesh in 2017.
Fragmented diplomacy and inherited obstacles
Analysts say Pristina’s inconsistent diplomatic strategy, combined with Serbia’s longstanding political and security ties across the Arab, African and Asian worlds, has slowed Kosovo’s outreach.
“Serbia inherited the extensive networks of the former Yugoslavia and continues to use them to obstruct Kosovo’s progress, especially in the Islamic world,” said Butrint Berisha, a researcher in international relations.
Former ambassador Albert Prenkaj said Kosovo’s identity as a strongly pro-U.S. project has often clashed with the regional interests of many Muslim-majority states. “Religious arguments have carried almost no weight,” he said.
Some countries face internal constraints. Morocco, which controls most of Western Sahara but faces an unresolved UN dispute over the territory, is often cited by analysts as an example of states wary of recognising Kosovo due to their own territorial sensitivities.
Syria’s recognition signals emerging openings
Experts say Kosovo should move quickly to capitalise on geopolitical shifts. Syria’s recognition, they argue, shows how regime changes or increased U.S. involvement can create diplomatic openings.
Lebanon, which has formed a functioning government and is receiving renewed American attention, is cited as a potential next target for lobbying. Azerbaijan, engaged in a U.S.-mediated process with Armenia, is also seen as more open than in previous years.
RFE/RL contacted the foreign ministries of both countries but received no reply.
Lack of coordination slows momentum
Prenkaj said Kosovo has not projected itself as a credible international actor in recent years. He pointed to weak coordination among the presidency, government and foreign ministry, and insufficient alignment with key allies – the United States, Britain and Turkey.
“It has been an ad-hoc policy. Kosovo has effectively lacked foreign policy for some time,” he said.
Far from the 2008 objective
Kosovo has 120 recognitions listed by its foreign ministry but is far from its original 2008 ambition of universal recognition by all UN member states. Five EU countries – Greece, Spain, Romania, Slovakia and Cyprus – still do not recognise it, nor do Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
While Kosovo has joined institutions such as the World Bank, IMF and EBRD, it has repeatedly failed to enter UNESCO, Interpol, the Council of Europe and the United Nations.
The need for a multi-track strategy
Analysts say Kosovo must adopt a multi-layered strategy that includes traditional diplomacy, targeted lobbying, closer coordination with allies and broader engagement with non-state actors.
Berisha argues that Kosovo should use economic partnerships and civil-society ties to create openings even in countries unlikely to recognise it soon. “There is space beyond the West – in Africa, Asia and Latin America – for Kosovo to deepen relations, which could later evolve into political support,” he said.
While recognition alone does not guarantee stability – Palestinian territories, he noted, are recognised by more states than Kosovo yet remain mired in conflict – the number of recognitions still carries symbolic and diplomatic value.
“Kosovo’s state-building project since the 1990s has been rooted in the quest for recognition. There is no reason to abandon that approach now,” Berisha added.
As global alliances shift and competition intensifies, analysts say the next Kosovo government will need a coordinated diplomatic strategy with its allies – and the agility to seize opportunities as they emerge.