A narrow victory by the candidate of Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik in Sunday’s snap presidential election has underscored a sharp decline in public support for the long-time strongman, deepening a parallel crisis facing Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vučić and suggesting that the political dominance of both men is weakening.
Dodik’s candidate, Siniša Karan of the ruling SNSD, won just over 50% of the vote – a margin of around 8,000 ballots – according to preliminary results, while opposition contender Branko Blanuša secured roughly 48%. Turnout fell dramatically to about 35%, down from 53% in 2022, signalling widespread voter fatigue and growing frustration with entrenched political elites.
Despite securing the presidency of Republika Srpska (RS), the SNSD lost in the entity’s two largest cities, Banja Luka and Bijeljina, and faced unexpectedly close races in other strongholds such as Pale, Prijedor and Trebinje. Analysts say the result exposes Dodik’s shrinking base and raises questions about the durability of his grip on power ahead of next year’s regular elections.
Opposition leaders immediately challenged the result, alleging irregularities in Doboj, Zvornik and Laktaši, and announcing legal appeals. Although a repeat vote is seen as unlikely due to institutional control by the SNSD, the narrow margin has boosted opposition confidence in what they call a “super-election year” across Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2026.
PARALLEL PRESSURES ON VUČIĆ
The weakening of Dodik’s political position mirrors the mounting instability faced by Serbia’s President Vučić, who has been under increasing domestic and international pressure over the past year. Large student-led protests, criticism from both Western partners and Russia, and controversies involving state-linked companies have fuelled the perception that his once-solid authority is eroding.
For years, Dodik and Vučić have been political allies who consolidated power through tight control over institutions, public employment, media influence and patronage networks. But the latest developments suggest that both leaders are encountering growing resistance from citizens weary of corruption, intimidation and institutional decay.
Anecdotal accounts from RS residents fleeing to Serbia to escape political pressure – particularly claims of job blackmail tied to voting for the SNSD – highlight long-standing grievances that may now be translating into electoral consequences.
DODIK’S FUTURE: BEHIND-THE-SCENES RULE?
German daily Frankfurter Rundschau noted that despite Karan’s formal victory, real power will remain with Dodik, even as he faces court rulings, the loss of the RS presidency, and ongoing U.S. sanctions. The paper described his election-night appearance as “grim-faced”, contrasting it with the upbeat mood of an opposition sensing momentum.
Karan will serve only until autumn 2026, when new general, entity and presidential elections are scheduled. Analysts say that if current trends continue, the SNSD could face its most serious challenge in more than a decade, and Dodik’s long-dominant role in RS politics could be nearing its end.
Whether the opposition can capitalise on the moment remains uncertain. But the combination of declining turnout, tighter margins and public disillusionment suggests that both Dodik in RS and Vučić in Serbia are entering a period of unprecedented vulnerability. /BalkanView