By Ota Tiefenböck
The American peace plan leaves Ukraine with few options. Everything suggests the war in Ukraine will end this year – and that Zelenskyy’s political days are numbered.
The war, after nearly four years of brutal fighting, now seems to be approaching its conclusion. On Friday, the United States issued an ultimatum: Ukraine must sign the peace plan no later than 27 November. Much indicates that Ukraine – despite resistance in both Ukrainian and European circles – has little choice but to comply. The mere fact that Washington has issued such an ultimatum shows that Trump is determined to end the war and get his way. Something suggests he has levers of pressure that make an impression on the Ukrainian leadership, including the recent corruption scandal.
It is noteworthy that the U.S.-backed Ukrainian anti-corruption bureau, NABU, which had reportedly investigated the case for 15 months, chose to release secret recordings involving some of those accused exactly one week before the U.S. presented its peace plan. It is also striking that in a case that appears to involve people close to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, NABU has so far released only material documenting corruption among a relatively limited number of individuals – notably not anyone in the president’s innermost circle.
According to Ukrainian media, many more may be involved, including the president’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, and the former defence minister – now head of Ukraine’s Security Council – Rustem Umerov. The fact that Zelenskyy seems ready to sign the plan also suggests that – despite pressure from several Ukrainian politicians – he has for now refrained from dismissing Yermak. Many believe Yermak is the real strongman in Ukraine and is behind several of Zelenskyy’s decisions. Some even wonder whether he might possess compromising information – whether or not Zelenskyy himself was involved in the corruption scandal or merely knew about it before it surfaced.
The makeup of the Ukrainian delegation Zelenskyy has sent to today’s talks in Switzerland is equally telling: it includes military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov, Security Council head Rustem Umerov – who is under NABU investigation – all under the leadership of none other than Yermak. Notably, one point in the peace plan is “full amnesty for all acts committed during the war.”
Zelenskyy’s likely intention to sign also emerges from an emotional video address in which he began preparing Ukrainians to accept the plan. He warned that rejecting it would lead to the hardest winter since the war began and the loss of a key ally.
The military situation offers Ukraine little comfort. Russia continues its slow advance, taking larger and larger areas, while Ukraine struggles to keep pace. The country faces severe difficulties obtaining new troops and has recently begun recruiting men from places like Colombia – individuals arriving without military experience or training. Reports of desertions are rising. Recruitment options are now extremely limited. The so-called “busification,” where young men are grabbed in the streets, forced into minibuses and mobilized against their will, has been a failure – but volunteers are hard to find.
Ukraine’s electricity and gas infrastructure has been destroyed in many regions, posing a major challenge should the war continue. Added to this is widespread war fatigue, further fuelled by the corruption scandal. Many Ukrainians risk their lives in the trenches while others enrich themselves through inflated military contracts and live in luxury.
Zelenskyy has – unfortunately for Ukraine – few viable options left. The same is true even though European leaders express resistance to the American plan. Beyond strong words and claims that the plan favours Russia, European leaders have little concrete to offer. Their absence from drafting the current peace plan confirms this.
Yes, the plan favours Russia, and it is unjust that a country that started the war stands to gain. But the battlefield dictates who shapes the terms of peace – however unfair it may feel. One must also ask what the alternative is. Polish foreign minister Radosław Sikorski said in early November that Ukraine was ready to fight for another three years. Yet he did not explain how Ukraine could possibly sustain that – where new soldiers would come from, or how the war could continue without drawing other countries into the conflict.
Russia will likely keep its distance from the diplomatic talks. Putin knows that if the plan is rejected, he will more or less have free rein to pursue his objectives. And he knows, as do the American and Ukrainian leaders, what the situation on the battlefield looks like.
It is evident that neither European nor Ukrainian leaders want the war to end – at least not on the current terms. But that will likely not change the fact that the plan will be signed. It is important to remember that European leaders were unable to present an alternative peace plan or ceasefire agreement – beyond demanding that Russia withdraw from all Ukrainian territory. A noble thought, but neither realistic nor diplomatic.
It remains doubtful, however, that the American peace plan will be fully adopted next week, despite Trump’s ultimatum. Trump himself indicated on Saturday that the current plan may not be his final proposal. Negotiations will follow, leading to minor changes so that both Ukraine and European countries can claim they secured concessions. But all signs point to the plan ultimately being signed.
And then begins a new chapter: the question of responsibility. The primary responsibility lies with Russia, which unlawfully invaded a neighbouring country. But who is responsible for the failure to reach a peace agreement in April 2022 in Istanbul – under far better terms for Ukraine? And what about the lack of diplomatic attempts before the war began?
Zelenskyy will find himself in the most difficult position. He will have to explain why hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians died unnecessarily after April 2022, and why the country is now left in ruins, while many refugees will likely not want to return after building new lives in Europe. Ukraine will suffer the consequences of this war for many years to come – that much is certain.
Zelenskyy is, in all likelihood, finished in Ukrainian politics. Under the peace plan, elections must be held within 100 days, and he will likely not even run. It is also uncertain whether it will be safe for him to remain in Ukraine, as some may view him as a traitor.
European leaders also face uncomfortable questions. They must explain why they failed to pursue a diplomatic solution – neither before the war nor during the nearly four years when their only mantra was more weapons for Ukraine. They must also justify the economic burdens the war has brought: billions transferred to Ukraine, falling living standards, and high energy prices. And then there are the USD 100 billion that the U.S. peace plan requires the EU to contribute to Ukraine’s reconstruction.
The author is the editor-in-chief of MrEast.dk. The piece was originally published in Danish. BalkanView.com has the author’s consent to republish the article.