President Donald Trump’s declaration that Republicans are drafting legislation to sanction any country doing business with Russia signals one of Washington’s most expansive attempts yet to restrict Moscow’s wartime revenues. The move also raises fresh questions about how U.S. pressure will affect the Balkans, a region where several governments remain deeply exposed to Russian energy and financial influence.
Trump said countries trading with Russia would be “very strongly sanctioned” and suggested Iran could also be targeted. The proposal marks a potential shift toward sweeping secondary sanctions that could hit not only Moscow but also foreign governments whose energy purchases maintain Russia’s export income.
Serbia faces heightened pressure over Russian energy ties
Among European countries, Serbia would likely face the most immediate impact. Serbia’s state energy companies maintain long-standing contracts with Russia’s Gazprom and rely heavily on Russian natural gas transported through the TurkStream pipeline. Belgrade has resisted aligning with EU sanctions since the invasion of Ukraine, arguing that cutting ties with Russian suppliers would threaten its economy and energy security.
Any U.S. legislation penalising countries that continue doing business with Russia could force President Aleksandar Vučić’s government into a difficult strategic choice between preserving stable gas deliveries and avoiding punitive American measures. Serbian officials have already warned that previous U.S. actions, including sanctions on Russian oil producer Lukoil, could disrupt domestic fuel supply chains.
Bosnia, North Macedonia and Montenegro exposed to market shocks
Other Western Balkan economies — particularly Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, and Montenegro — do not buy Russian energy directly but remain vulnerable to market volatility. All three depend on regional energy hubs where Russian gas plays a significant role, meaning disruptions or price spikes triggered by sanctions on major buyers such as India or China could cascade into the Balkan electricity and heating sectors.
North Macedonia, which relies on imported gas and cross-border electricity purchases, has previously warned that sudden supply shocks could strain state budgets and complicate EU-aligned energy transition plans.
EU candidate states torn between Brussels and Washington
The proposed U.S. sanctions could also intensify political pressure on Balkan countries seeking to advance EU membership. Brussels has already urged all candidates — including Albania, Kosovo, North Macedonia, and Montenegro — to fully align with the EU’s foreign policy stance toward Russia.
If Washington adopts even stricter measures, regional governments may be confronted with a dual expectation from both the EU and the United States to reduce remaining Russian ties, including in energy, finance and telecommunications. Analysts say that could accelerate diversification efforts but also inflame domestic political divisions in societies where pro-Russian narratives remain influential.
Secondary sanctions could reshape regional trade
Bloomberg reported that related Senate proposals would authorise tariffs of up to 500% on imports from countries deemed insufficiently supportive of Ukraine. While primarily aimed at major buyers such as India and China, expanded secondary sanctions could complicate regional relationships with sanctioned Russian entities operating in the Balkans through subsidiaries.
Russian banks and companies retain a footprint in Serbia, Bosnia’s Republika Srpska, and parts of Montenegro, raising the possibility that local transactions could come under scrutiny. Past measures against Russian-linked banks have already forced governments to reorganise supply chains and payment systems.
Wider geopolitical implications
For Balkan leaders, Washington’s more aggressive posture could narrow room for diplomatic balancing between East and West — a strategy that some governments have maintained for decades. With Moscow seeking to preserve influence in the region and Beijing expanding infrastructure financing, a broad U.S. sanctions framework may push the Balkans more firmly into Western alignment, though at potentially high economic cost.
As details of the Republican proposal remain under discussion, regional governments are watching closely. Any broad expansion of U.S. penalties on Russian energy trade could reverberate quickly through Balkan economies, testing their capacity to adjust at a time of political fragility and ongoing EU enlargement negotiations.
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