Serbia’s government and central bank on Tuesday warned that payment transactions with the country’s largest oil company, Naftna Industrija Srbije (NIS), could be suspended within days if the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) does not grant the Russia-owned firm a licence to continue operations.
President Aleksandar Vučić said the NIS refinery in Pančevo had entered “hot circulation”, a reduced-capacity mode used ahead of a potential shutdown, adding that Serbia had “four days left” before production would be fully halted unless OFAC approves a temporary licence.
The warning sent ripples through the economy, with officials cautioning that banks, card payments, fuel supplies, food distribution, health services and public safety could all face disruptions.
The National Bank of Serbia (NBS) said it would block all financial transactions with NIS if OFAC rejects the licence request, a move that would make fuel purchases at NIS petrol stations impossible. Serbian media reported that the suspension would also affect corporate payments, credit operations and card processing.
Serbia is seeking to prevent secondary U.S. sanctions linked to NIS, which is majority-owned by Russia’s Gazprom Neft. The government has urged Moscow to present a sales contract for its stake, but Russian officials have not publicly confirmed whether they intend to sell.
Vučić said Serbia was prepared to grant Russia an additional 50 days to find a buyer, and if no deal is reached, Belgrade would install a temporary management team rather than immediately nationalise the company. “Serbia has done everything to help the Russian investor,” he said, adding that the priority is to avoid sanctions that could paralyse the financial system.
Former energy minister Zorana Mihajlović told Euronews Serbia that a solution exists and the refinery could resume normal operations as soon as a licence is granted. Oil deliveries via the JANAF pipeline would continue, she said.
Analysts warned that the refinery’s shutdown could push fuel prices higher and threaten the jobs of thousands of workers in Pančevo. Media across the region described Vučić’s address as unusually dramatic, reflecting the high stakes for the energy sector and the broader economy.
The government said it had secured sufficient supplies for emergency services until mid-January, but acknowledged that prolonged sanctions could strain the system. “It is not just oil,” Vučić said. “Payment flows, cards, loans — everything would be affected, and we do not yet know what will happen with gas.”
OFAC has not commented on the licence request. Serbia, heavily dependent on Russian energy but seeking to preserve financial stability, is now facing a countdown with potentially sweeping economic consequences.